Tinubu to win 20 states, Atiku 9, Obi 8 — Here’s What 2027 Projection Says
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been projected to win 20 states in the 2027 presidential election, according to a new forecast by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng.
The projection places former Vice President Atiku Abubakar at nine states, while Peter Obi is projected to win eight states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
PIG based its assessment on the political realities and alignments currently prevailing across the country, while stressing that the projection does not represent the final outcome of the 2027 election.
Tinubu projected to dominate South-West
According to the forecast, Tinubu is projected to win all six states in the South-West — Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti.
The projection also puts Kano, one of Nigeria’s most electorally significant states, in Tinubu’s column.
Beyond the South-West, PIG projects the president to win Zamfara, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi, Plateau, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Imo, Cross River, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa.
The projection gives Tinubu 20 states in total.
PIG attributed the president’s projected advantage partly to his political structure and what it described as his administration’s efforts to stabilise the economy and reposition the country.
However, the group said economic conditions could become one of the biggest factors determining Tinubu’s fortunes in 2027.
It noted that inflation, unemployment, security, infrastructure and the cost of living could influence voters’ decisions before the election.
Atiku projected to win nine states
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is projected to win nine states under the PIG forecast.
The states are Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa, Gombe, Adamawa and Taraba.
The projection reflects Atiku’s continued political strength in parts of the North-West and North-East.
PIG also identified his long-standing political network and experience from previous presidential campaigns as potential advantages.
However, the group noted that Atiku’s ability to make significant inroads into southern Nigeria could be critical to his chances of mounting a serious challenge for the presidency.
His position on fuel subsidy and the cost of petrol could also feature prominently in the campaign, particularly if transportation costs and living expenses remain major concerns for voters.
Obi projected to retain key areas
Peter Obi is projected to win eight states and the FCT.
The forecast largely reflects areas where Obi built considerable support during the 2023 presidential election, while also pointing to the challenge of expanding his support base across the country.
Edo is among the states projected to favour Obi.
PIG said the former Anambra governor’s major challenge would be translating his existing support into a broader state-by-state electoral coalition.
PIG warns projection could change
Despite placing Tinubu ahead of his two major challengers, PIG cautioned that its assessment should be viewed as a snapshot of the current political landscape.
The group said alliances, defections, coalition arrangements and the eventual choice of running mates could significantly alter the current balance of forces.
Changes in economic conditions could also reshape voters’ preferences before election day.
According to PIG, regional, ethnic and religious considerations could influence the election, but these could compete with issues such as insecurity, food prices, unemployment, petrol costs and the general cost of living.
The group therefore stressed that its projection should not be interpreted as a declaration that the election has already been won or lost.
For now, however, PIG’s projection places Tinubu in the lead with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight states plus the FCT.
The 2027 presidential election is scheduled for January 16, 2027, meaning the political landscape still has several months to change before Nigerians cast their ballots.