Revealed: See who’s likely to win AFCON based on Opta’s prediction
Football is notoriously unpredictable, but the Opta supercomputer made an effort to predict the delayed 2023 AFCON (Africa Cup of Nations) winners by utilising some betting odds and its own internal power rankings to project each country’s potential result before the competition gets underway.
Senegal, the reigning champions, are Opta’s favourite team to win this year’s AFCON, with a 12.8% chance of adding a second star to their roster.
They would become the first team to win back-to-back AfCON titles since Egypt did so between 2006 and 2010 and the fourth team overall. The previous six reigning champions have all been knocked out in the round 16.
Opta predicts that Senegal, with a percentage of 88.8%, will easily advance from Group C, besting Cameroon (33.5%), Guinea (11.9%), and Gambia (7.2%).
With a 12.1% chance of taking home the trophy, host Ivory Coast are likely to be the first to host and win AFCON since Egypt in 2006. The Ivorians have a strong team under the direction of their new captain, Serge Aurier, so they won’t be depending just on home advantage.
Morocco, who made history in 2022 by being the first African country to reach the World Cup semifinals has 11.1% chance of winning according to Opta. Since their last victory in 1976, the Atlas Lions have had difficulty winning the continental championship.
Opta also gave Algeria a 9.7% chance of winning, and Egypt a 8.5% chance of winning their eight AFCON title. Three-time Afcon winners Nigeria (1980, 1994, and 2013) and five-time champions Cameroon (1984, 1988, 2000, 2002, and 2017) complete the top seven teams according to Opta’s predictor model. Nigeria has an 8.1% and Cameroon a 7.5% chance of winning the trophy.
Both nations are formidable powers in African football, possessing talented goal scorers. The 2023 African Footballer of the Year, Victor Osimhen, scored ten goals in the Nigerian qualification process, at least five more than any other player. Nigeria as a team scored 22 goals in the qualifications and that’s Seven more than any other team.
Cameroon’s captain, Vincent Aboubakar, hopes to duplicate his success from the 2021 Afcon, where he scored eight goals to take home the Golden Boot. Only Ndaye Mulamba has scored more goals in a single AFCON outing (nine goals in 1974).
Slightly ahead of the other teams who all have an outside chance of winning the AFCON title with chances of less than 4% are Tunisia in eighth place with a 6.3% chance and Ghana in ninth place with a 5.3% chance according to Opta’s model.
If AFCON is going to see another first time winner like Senegal in the last edition, then its likely to be Mali with 3.7% chance.
Afcon 2023 looks to be a wide-open and thrilling competition, with only 5.4% separating the winning chances of the top seven teams. We can only cross our hands and hope to see worthy winners by the end of the tournament on February 11th.
