South Africa: Fuel price drop expected in February 2026 – How much cheaper will petrol and diesel be?

South African motorists may be heading into February 2026 with lighter fuel bills, as fresh mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to another round of significant fuel price reductions. Coming shortly after January’s cuts, the latest projections suggest that petrol and diesel prices could fall sharply if current market conditions hold.

According to the CEF’s daily fuel price indicators, a combination of a stronger rand and lower global oil prices has worked in favour of consumers during the first half of January. These two factors — the rand–dollar exchange rate and international refined fuel prices — are the primary drivers of local fuel pricing, and both have remained supportive of price relief.

Petrol prices, which had been under pressure in previous months, have now moved firmly into positive territory. Mid-month data shows petrol posting a recovery of between 77 and 82 cents per litre, signalling a meaningful decrease if the trend continues through to month-end. Diesel prices, however, have emerged as the standout performer, showing an over-recovery of between 92 cents and R1.02 per litre, making them the biggest beneficiaries of the current market dynamics.

Projected Fuel Price Adjustments for February 2026

Based on the latest available figures, the CEF is projecting the following changes:

• Petrol 93: decrease of around 78 cents per litre

• Petrol 95: decrease of around 82 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of about 93 cents per litre

  
  
  

• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of about R1.02 per litre

• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of around 81 cents per litre

While LP Gas prices are not included in the daily snapshots published by the CEF, all other fuel types are currently trending lower.

It is important to note that these figures remain indicative, not final. The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces official fuel price adjustments a few days before implementation, and market volatility in the latter half of the month could still alter the outcome.

Why the Rand Is Helping Fuel Prices

The rand has started 2026 on a relatively strong footing, trading at around R16.37 to the US dollar. This resilience has helped cushion fuel costs, as South Africa imports crude oil and refined petroleum products priced in dollars.

Globally, the rand has benefited from improved economic indicators, including stronger trade outcomes, easing inflation pressures, South Africa’s removal from the FATF grey list, and a more favourable domestic economic outlook. A recent credit rating upgrade and gains in precious metals have also supported the currency.

In the United States, economic data has been mixed but generally supportive of risk-sensitive currencies like the rand. A decline in jobless claims and better-than-expected manufacturing data helped stabilise markets, while diplomatic signals around geopolitical tensions eased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

Global Oil Prices: Downward Trend with Caution

On the oil front, prices have generally trended lower despite intermittent spikes caused by geopolitical developments. Brent crude has been hovering around $66 per barrel, a level that remains relatively low by historical standards.

Tensions in regions such as Iran, Venezuela, and the Black Sea briefly pushed oil prices to a three-month high amid fears of supply disruptions, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for nearly 20% of global oil flows. However, rising global supply and softer demand expectations have helped keep prices within a narrow range.

Expected Pump Prices if Trends Hold

If current conditions persist, fuel prices could shift as follows:

Inland (Expected February Prices):

• 93 Petrol: R19.86 (from R20.64)

• 95 Petrol: R19.93 (from R20.75)

• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): R17.48

• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): R17.50

• Illuminating paraffin: R11.82

Coastal (Expected February Prices):

• 93 Petrol: R19.07

• 95 Petrol: R19.10

• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): R16.65

• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): R16.74

• Illuminating paraffin: R10.81

Final fuel price adjustments are scheduled to take effect at midnight on 3 February 2026. Should market conditions remain stable, motorists could enjoy some of the lowest fuel prices seen in several years.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Will fuel prices definitely drop in February 2026?
Not yet confirmed. Current data strongly points to a decrease, but final prices depend on market conditions up to month-end.

Which fuel type is expected to drop the most?
Diesel is showing the largest over-recovery, with possible reductions of over R1 per litre.

Why does the rand matter for fuel prices?
Fuel is priced in US dollars, so a stronger rand lowers import costs.

When will the official fuel price be announced?
The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources typically announces prices a few days before implementation.

When do the new prices take effect?
At midnight on 3 February 2026.