Barcelona vs Real Madrid: Copa del Rey final preview, predictions

Real Madrid forward, Kylian Mbappe been tackled by Barcelona defender, Cubarsi in 2024/25 El Classico clash. Photo Credit- Goal.com

The Seville’s Estadio La Cartuja is set for an explosive chapter in football’s fiercest rivalry as Barcelona face Real Madrid in the 2024/25 Copa del Rey final on Saturday, April 26, at 9 PM (GMT). This is the eighth Clasico final in the competition’s history will put Hansi Flick’s treble-chasing Barcelona against Carlo Ancelotti’s embattled Real Madrid, who view the cup as their last shot at silverware. With Barcelona dominating both Clasicos this season (4-0 in La Liga, 5-2 in the Spanish Super Cup), Madrid face a tough battle. This piece is set to explore both teams’ form, tactics, injury updates, head-to-head record, and predicted scorelines.

Barcelona’s performances

Barcelona, atop La Liga with 71 points from 33 matches (W22 D5 L6, GF 73 GA 34), are the most in form team in Spain. Their 1-0 win over Mallorca on April 22, courtesy of Dani Olmo’s 10th goal, extended their lead over Real Madrid to four points. Unbeaten domestically since a 2-1 loss to Las Palmas in December, they’ve won 12 of their last 13 La Liga games. In the Champions League, they’re semi-finalists after a 5-3 aggregate rout of Borussia Dortmund, eyeing a treble (La Liga, Champions League, Copa del Rey). Their Copa run was clinical, defeating Barbastro (3-1), Getafe (2-0), Athletic Bilbao (4-2), and Villarreal (5-2 aggregate).

Barcelona’s tactics

Hansi Flick’s 4-2-3-1 blends high pressing (8.6 high turnovers per game) with strong attacking play. Lamine Yamal (7 goals, 10 assists) and Raphinha (15 La Liga goals, 50+ contributions) stretch defenses, while Pedri dictates tempo. Without Robert Lewandowski, Ferran Torres (10 goals) leads the line, relying on Olmo’s runs (10 goals, 5 assists) to create space. Defensively, Pau Cubarsi and Inigo Martinez have tightened up, conceding 1.03 goals per game, though set pieces (6 conceded) remain a concern. Flick’s rotations, resting Raphinha and Cubarsi against Mallorca signal a full-strength approach, targeting Madrid’s shaky defense.

Barcelona’s team news and injuries

Barcelona’s injury list is significant. Robert Lewandowski (hamstring, 40 goals in 48 games) is out until May, forcing Torres to lead the attack. Alejandro Balde (hamstring) is doubtful, with Gerard Martin likely at left-back. Marc Casado (knee), Marc Bernal (ACL), and Marc-Andre ter Stegen are sidelined. Gavi (returning from injury) and Frenkie de Jong anchor midfield, with no suspensions. Flick’s rotated squad vs Mallorca preserved Yamal, Raphinha, and Pedri for the final.

Real Madrid’s performances

Real Madrid, second in La Liga with 67 points from 33 matches (W19 D10 L4, GF 59 GA 26), are faltering. Their 5-1 aggregate Champions League exit to Arsenal including the 2-1 home loss on April 16 increased pressure on Ancelotti, who may depart after this game. A 1-0 win at Getafe on April 23, via Arda Guler’s strike, kept them four points behind Barcelona, but there are still exposed defensive weakness. The Copa del Rey is their last trophy hope, reached via dramatic wins over Osasuna (3-2), Atletico Madrid (4-2), and Real Sociedad (5-4 aggregate, 4-4 extra-time draw). Losses in both previous Clasicos this season and a 2-1 defeat to Valencia shows inconsistency.

Real Madrid’s tactics

Ancelotti’s 4-2-3-1 (or 4-4-2 diamond) relies on Kylian Mbappe (32 goals, 8 assists) and Vinicius Junior (10 goals, 7 assists) for counterattacking. Jude Bellingham (6 goals, 5 assists) drops deeper to link play, but the absence of Toni Kroos’ control has made the midfield weak. Defensively, they’ve conceded more goals per game, worsened by injuries forcing Federico Valverde at right-back and Fran Garcia at left-back. Set pieces (8 conceded in La Liga) are a liability, and their high press lacks intensity as seen in the match against Arsenal. Ancelotti’s six changes vs Getafe prioritized the final, but rotations has not solved both the attacking and defensive problems.

Real Madrid’s team news and injuries

Madrid’s injury crisis is also a big concern. Eduardo Camavinga (abductor tear) and David Alaba (muscle injury) are out. Dani Carvajal (ACL) and Eder Militao (ACL) are long-term absentees, while Ferland Mendy (hamstring) is doubtful, leaving Garcia to face Yamal. Kylian Mbappe, nursing an ankle sprain from the Arsenal game, is expected to start after missing two matches. Thibaut Courtois is fit, but Dani Ceballos (recently back) may be rested. No suspensions loom, but Ancelotti’s makeshift defense with Raul Asencio and Antonio Rudiger have not been efficient recently.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid’s head-to-head statistics

Based on SofaScore and Flashscore, the last 10 competitive Clasicos show Barcelona’s recent edge: Barcelona have recorded 6 wins, while Real Madrid 4 wins, and no draws. There have been massive goals scored in the last 10 fixtures with Barcelona having 24, and Real Madrid having 20. Barcelona have won the last two Clasicos by a combined 9-2, this season. Madrid’s last Copa del Rey win over Barcelona was a 4-0 semi-final rout in 2023, their only cup triumph in the last five meetings. Seven of 10 matches saw over 2.5 goals, averaging 4.4 goals per game.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions

Barcelona enter this fixture as favorites. Their 12-match domestic unbeaten run and previous Clasico dominance (9-2 aggregate) give them the edge. Flick’s high press and Yamal-Raphinha wing play could exploit Madrid’s depleted defense, which can concede high chances of goals. Torres, replacing Lewandowski, has 10 goals but lacks the sharp presence of an attacker, potentially weakening their attack.

Predicted Scoreline: Barcelona 3-1 Real Madrid. Barcelona’s press and wing play, led by Yamal and Raphinha, overwhelm Madrid’s makeshift defense. Mbappe and Vinicius to strike on counters, but Torres and Olmo’s runs secure a narrow win. However an alternative result could see the match end in a 2-2 draw but Barcelona winning 4-2 after extra time.