Spain vs France: UEFA Nations League preview, predictions
The UEFA Nations League semi-finals kick off on Thursday, June 5, (8:00 PM WAT) at the Stuttgart Arena in Germany, will see Spain take on France in a high stake clash of European giants. The winners will advance to the final on June 8 against either Germany or Portugal, while the losers will face off for third place. Spain, the 2023 champions, arrive with a dynamic, youthful squad led by Lamine Yamal, while France, the 2021 winners, lean on Kylian Mbappe’s star power despite defensive injuries. With both teams unbeaten in their last nine Nations League matches outside their home nations, this semi-final promises tactical intrigue. This piece is set to analyze performances, tactics, head-to-head statistics, and predict scorelines.
Spain performances
Spain enter as defending champions, having secured their semi-final spot with a 5-5 aggregate draw against the Netherlands, winning 5-4 on penalties on March 23, 2025. Their 2024/25 Nations League campaign saw 5 wins and 4 draws in 9 away matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding 6. A high-scoring quarter-final against the Netherlands showcased their attacking flair, with Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams tormenting defenses. Spain’s 1.7 xG and 52% possession reflect a possession-based style, but their 0.7 xGA highlights defensive solidity, though no clean sheets in the knockout rounds raise concerns.
Spain’s tactics
Luis de la Fuente’s 4-3-3 emphasizes high pressing and quick transitions, leveraging the pace of Yamal and Williams. Yamal, 17, leads with 4 goals and 3 assists, averaging 2.3 dribbles per 90, while Williams adds 3 goals and 1.9 key passes per 90, according to SofaScore. Midfielders Rodri and Pedri control tempo, with Dani Olmo offering a creative edge. The backline, led by Aymeric Laporte relies on Unai Simón’s 74% save percentage, though his 2.8 saves per 90 suggest occasional pressure. Spain’s strategy will target France’s depleted defense with wide runs.
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France performances
France, the 2021 champions, qualified with a 2-2 aggregate draw against Croatia, winning 5-4 on penalties on March 23, 2025. Their 2024/25 Nations League record shows 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss in 9 matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding 5. A 4-0 thrashing of Switzerland secured first place in Group A, but injuries to key defenders have tested their depth. France’s 1.6 xG and 50% possession indicate a balanced approach, with a 0.6 xGA reflecting defensive resilience despite setbacks, according to Opta Analyst. Their semi-final preparation is complicated by post-Champions League fatigue for seven players.
France tactics
Didier Deschamps’ 4-3-3 adapts to a 4-4-2 in defense, relying on Mbappe’s 0.5 xG per 90 and Randal Kolo Muani’s 3 goals. Mbappe, with 3 goals and 2 assists, drives the attack, supported by Ousmane Dembele’s dribbles. Midfield hinges on Aurelien Tchouameni and Adrien Rabiot, with Warren Zaïre-Emery adding dynamism. The defense, weakened by injuries to Dayot Upamecano, Lucas Hernandez, and Jules Kounde, sees Ibrahima Konate and Benjamin Pavard step up. Mike Maignan’s 76% save percentage and 3.0 saves per 90 are crucial, according to Opta Analyst. France will counter Spain’s pace with physicality and set pieces.
Spain vs France head-to-head statistics
Spain and France have clashed 35 times, with France holding a slight edge of 16 wins to Spain’s 13, and 6 draws. In competitive matches, Spain lead 8-7, with 4 draws. Recent encounters favor Spain, who won 2-0 in the 2021 Nations League semi-final en route to the title, and 2-1 in the 2023 final. France’s last victory was a 1-0 friendly in 2017. In the Nations League, Spain’s 2-0 win in 2021 and 2-1 in 2023 outscore France’s 1-0 in 2018, giving Spain a 2-1-1 edge in the competition. Both teams’ current form suggests a close contest, with Spain’s young squad testing France’s experience.
Spain vs France predictions
Spain are slight favorites, reflecting their unbeaten run and Yamal’s form. France’s 1.6 xG and 0.6 xGA are impressive, but injuries to three defenders: Upamecano, Hernandez, and Kounde could unravel their backline. Deschamps’ challenge to reintegrate Champions League finalists like Dembele adds complexity. Spain’s 4-3-3, with Yamal and Williams stretching play, targets France’s weakened flanks, where Pavard and Theo Hernandez may struggle. France’s counterattacking 4-3-3, led by Mbappe’s 3 goals, could punish Spain’s occasional defensive lapses.
