South African fuel prices set for major November decline amid favourable trends
Car at a petrol station. Photo Credit- News24
Mid-month data signals a potential sharp drop in South Africa’s fuel prices for November, offering relief to motorists if current trends persist. According to updates from the Central Energy Fund, an overrecovery of 58 cents per litre on 95-octane petrol and 25 cents per litre on diesel could translate into the largest petrol price reduction in seven months. The figures, which track daily fluctuations, are influenced primarily by international oil prices in US dollars and the rand-dollar exchange rate. While the outlook remains promising, the rand’s recent weakening against the dollar introduces some uncertainty as the pricing period progresses.
The overrecovery extends across fuel grades, with 61 cents per litre noted for 93-octane petrol and 11 cents per litre for paraffin. These gains stem from the five-week oversight period that began on September 26, during which the Central Energy Fund monitors global and local variables to determine final adjustments. No additional levies are currently affecting prices, as the slate account maintains a robust positive balance, ensuring the slate levy remains at zero cents per litre. The period concludes on October 30, with new prices taking effect on November 5.A key driver behind the projected decline is the international crude oil market, where Brent crude prices have tumbled by about 8% this month. On Tuesday, Brent fell to as low as $62.25 per barrel, according to Trading Economics data. This downturn is attributed to escalating US-China trade tensions, including China’s sanctions on five American units of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, heightening frictions between the world’s top two economies. Analysts point to these developments as dampening demand expectations and contributing to the price slide.
Further easing in global oil dynamics has bolstered the overrecovery, with reduced tensions in the Middle East playing a supportive role. Recent progress, such as Hamas releasing Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, has lowered geopolitical risk premiums that typically inflate crude prices. Coupled with a growing global supply glut, these factors have created a bearish environment for oil, indirectly benefiting South African consumers through lower import costs.However, the rand’s volatility could temper the extent of the savings. Since the oversight period started, the currency experienced a sharp depreciation, closing at R17.17 per dollar on October 6 and 8, and dipping to R17.10 intraday. It has since rebounded to around R17.46 early Tuesday, nearing late-September levels. With two and a half weeks left until the final pricing decision, any further weakening could erode some of the overrecovery gains. If trends hold steady, though, the combination of cheaper oil and a stable rand promises substantial relief at the pumps.
FAQs on South Africa’s petrol prices
What is the projected drop in petrol prices for November 2025?
If trends hold, 95-octane petrol could decrease by 58 cents per litre, marking the biggest reduction in seven months.
What factors are driving the potential fuel price decline?
The main influences are falling international Brent crude prices (down 8%) and the rand’s recovery against the dollar, tracked by the Central Energy Fund.
How does the rand-dollar rate affect fuel prices?
A weaker rand increases import costs for dollar-denominated oil, potentially offsetting overrecoveries; it recently traded at R17.46 per dollar.
When will the new November fuel prices be announced and effective?
The oversight period ends October 30, with prices changing on November 5.
Are there any additional levies impacting November fuel prices?
No, the slate levy remains at zero cents per litre due to a positive slate account balance.
