PSG vs Arsenal: UCL semi-final second leg preview, prediction

The Parc des Princes in Paris is set for an electrifying showdown as Paris Saint-Germain host Arsenal in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League semi-final on Wednesday, May 7, at 8:00 PM (GMT). PSG hold a slender 1-0 lead from the first leg, courtesy of Ousmane Dembele’s fourth-minute strike at the Emirates, but Arsenal’s late dominance and set-piece threat keep the stakes alive. Mikel Arteta’s Gunners, with a 2-1 Premier League loss to Bournemouth, face Luis Enrique’s Ligue 1 champions, who suffered a 2-1 defeat at Strasbourg, in a battle for a spot in the Munich final against Inter Milan or Barcelona. This piece is set to analyze both teams’ form, tactics, team news, head-to-head statistics, and predict the scorelines.

Paris Saint-Germain form

PSG, Ligue 1 champions with 82 points from 30 matches are faltering domestically, losing 2-1 at Strasbourg on May 3 their second straight league defeat after Enrique’s heavy rotation ahead of Arsenal. In the Champions League, their record is formidable, with a 5-4 aggregate win over Aston Villa in the quarter-finals and a 4-2 last-16 triumph on penalties over Liverpool. Their 1-0 first-leg win at Arsenal, showcased resilience. PSG’s attack and 28 goals in their last 10 Champions League matches highlight their attacking ability, but set-piece defending makes them exploitable. A 3-2 home loss to Aston Villa in the quarter-finals and a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in the last 16 exposes Parc des Princes vulnerabilities when playing at home.

PSG tactics

Luis Enrique’s 4-3-3 prioritizes possession and quick transitions, with Vitinha and Joao Neves controlling midfield, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Desire Doue exploit flanks, while Bradley Barcola and Goncalo Ramos provide depth in the attack. Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes offer width, but PSG’s high line was exposed by Arsenal’s counters in the first leg Enrique’s press aims to suffocate Arsenal’s build-up, but their set-piece defending (6 conceded) faces Arsenal’s 10 set-piece goals. PSG’s reliance on Kvaratskhelia’s pace to target Arsenal’s makeshift defense.

PSG’s team news and injuries

PSG’s injury concerns loom large. Ousmane Dembele, who scored the first-leg winner, is a major doubt with a “strained hamstring.” Luis Enrique called it “very minor,” but it suggests he may miss out on the second-leg. Marquinhos and Willian Pacho are fit to anchor defense, with Gianluigi Donnarumma’s 5 saves in the first leg bolstering confidence. No suspensions apply, but Enrique may recall Fabian Ruiz for physicality.

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Arsenal’s form

Arsenal, second in the Premier League with 67 points from 34 matches are recovering from a 2-1 home loss to Bournemouth on May 3, conceding twice from set pieces.Their Champions League campaign is impressive, with a 7-1-0 record, including a 5-1 aggregate demolition of Real Madrid in the quarter-finals. Despite the 1-0 first-leg loss to PSG, Arsenal’s attack and a disallowed Mikel Merino goal suggest they can make a miracle against the Parisans.

Arsenal’s tactics

Mikel Arteta’s 4-3-3 combines high press and set-piece threat. Declan Rice anchors midfield, freeing Martin Odegaard to advance and link up with Leandro Trossard, Bukayo Saka, and Gabriel Martinelli. William Saliba and Jakub Kiwior form a robust defense, but Kiwior’s matchup against Kvaratskhelia is a concern. Arteta’s first-leg adjustments correcting early midfield issues could see Arsenal dominate. Thomas Partey’s return could see Rice push forward, enhancing attacks. Arteta’s post-match comment in the Bournemouth game signals a tough approach will be used.

Arsenal’s team news and injuries

Arsenal’s injury crisis is critical. Kai Havertz, Gabriel Magalhaes, Gabriel Jesus, and Takehiro Tomiyasu are out. Jurrien Timber and Martin Odegaard are doubts, with Timber absent against Bournemouth. Ben White, Riccardo Calafiori, and Jorginho are unlikely to feature. Thomas Partey’s return is a huge boost, potentially anchoring midfield. No suspensions apply, but Arteta may rely on Myles Lewis-Skelly or Ethan Nwaneri.

PSG vs Arsenal head-to-head statistics

Based on Sports Mole and Flashscore, the last 10 competitive meetings favor Arsenal; securing 4 wins, while PSG 1 win, and 5 draws. The Gunners have scored 12 goals in their encounter with PSG, while PSG only have 8. Arsenal’s record includes a 2-0 league-phase win in October 2024, exploiting PSG’s set-piece weakness. PSG’s first-leg win ended Arsenal’s 10-game unbeaten streak against them. Six of 10 games saw under 2.5 goals, averaging 2.0 goals per game. Arsenal have never overturned a home first-leg defeat in Europe.

PSG vs Arsenal prediction

PSG are favorites to win, giving them a chance to reach the final. Their 1-0 lead, home advantage and Champions League goal difference since December make them formidable. Enrique’s 4-3-3, with Vitinha and Neves to control possession could overwhelm Arsenal early in the second leg. However, Dembele’s potential absence, set-piece issues, and recent losses undermines team form. Again PSG’s home losses to Villa and Liverpool, could be an advantage for the Gunners.

Arsenal’s Champions League run and 2-0 PSG win in October makes them optimistic. Their attack in the first leg, plus a disallowed goal, show they can score. Arteta’s press and Partey’s return could unlock Rice and Odegaard. However, injuries to Havertz, Gabriel, Jesus, Tomiyasu, potentially Timber and Ødegaard reduces squad depth. The set-piece goals conceded and no shots after Bournemouth’s 75th-minute lead are alarming, gives PSG an advantage.

Predicted Scoreline: PSG 2-1 Arsenal (PSG advance 3-1 on aggregate) PSG’s home crowd and Kvaratskhelia’s pace overwhelm Arsenal’s depleted defense.Donnarumma’s saves and Arsenal’s injuries seal the victory for PSG. Vitinha’s control and Mendes’ overlaps prove decisive. However, an alternative result could end in a one-all draw making PSG advance 2-1 on aggregate.