Portugal vs Spain: UEFA Nations League final preview, predictions

The UEFA Nations League 2024/25 final takes center stage on Sunday, June 8, (8:00 PM WAT) at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, will see Portugal face-off sgainst Spain in a clash for continental supremacy. Portugal, the 2019 champions, edged Germany 2-1 in the semi-finals, while Spain, the 2023 titleholders, overcame France 5-4 in a thrilling nine-goal semi-final. Both teams aim to become the first nation to win the tournament twice, making this a historic showdown. With attacking flair, tactical depth, and a rich rivalry, the final promises a spectacle. This piece is set to explore both countries’ performances, tactics, head-to-head statistics, and predict scorelines.

Portugal performances

Portugal’s journey to the final has been marked by resilience and clutch performances. They overcame a 1-0 deficit to beat Denmark 5-2 in the quarter-final second leg on March 23, 2025, and secured a 2-1 semi-final victory over Germany on June 4, with Francisco Conceicao and Cristiano Ronaldo scoring to overturn Florian Wirtz’s opener. Their 2024/25 Nations League campaign yielded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in 8 matches, scoring 15 goals (1.63 per game) and conceding 6. A 1.6 xG and 51% possession reflect a balanced attack, supported by 3 clean sheets and a 0.6 xGA, though their reliance on Ronaldo, now 40, raises questions about consistency.

Portugal tactics

Roberto Martínez’s 4-2-3-1 which changes into a 4-3-3 in attack, emphasizing quick transitions and width. Ronaldo leads with 5 Nations League goals, his 137th international strike coming against Germany. Rafael Leao and Bernardo Silva stretch defenses, while Vitinha and Bruno Fernandes control midfield. The defense, anchored by Ruben Dias and Goncalo Inacio, relies on Diogo Costa’s 75% save percentage and 2.9 saves per 90, according to Opta Analyst. Portugal’s 8.1 turnovers per game will target Spain’s high line with counterattacks.

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Spain performances

Spain’s path to the final has been a rollercoaster of attacking brilliance and defensive vulnerability. They advanced past the Netherlands 5-4 on penalties after a 5-5 aggregate quarter-final and stunned France 5-4 in the semi-final on June 5, with Lamine Yamal’s brace proving decisive. Their 2024/25 Nations League record shows 6 wins and 4 draws in 10 away matches, scoring 19 goals and conceding 10. A 1.7 xG and 52% possession highlight their dominance, but no clean sheets in the knockouts and a 0.7 xGA suggest defensive exposure, balanced by their 24-game unbeaten streak.

Spain’s tactics

Luis de la Fuente’s 4-3-3 thrives on high pressing and rapid transitions. Yamal, 17, leads with 4 goals and 3 assists, while Nico Williams adds 3 goals. Rodri and Pedri dictate midfield, with Dani Olmo providing creativity. The backline, led by Aymeric Laporte depends on Unai Simon’s 74% save percentage, though his 2.8 saves per 90 indicate pressure, according to Opta Analyst. Spain will aim to control possession and exploit Portugal’s aging defense with their youthful pace.

Portugal vs Spain head-to-head statistics

Portugal and Spain have faced off 38 times, with Spain holding a narrow 17-12 advantage, including 9 draws. In competitive matches, Spain lead 9-6 with 4 draws. Recent encounters favor Spain. Portugal’s last victory was a 3-0 friendly in 2018, while their 4-0 Euro 2004 group stage win remains a highlight. The rivalry’s competitiveness suggests a tight contest.

Portugal vs Spain predicted scorelines

Spain are slight favorites. Portugal’s 1.6 xG and 0.6 xGA show resilience, but their reliance on Ronaldo could be exploited. Spain’s 5-4 semi-final win exposed defensive errors, conceding four after leading 5-1, while Portugal’s 2-1 victory over Germany showcased grit but highlighted a leaky backline. Martinez’s counterattacking 4-3-3 may struggle against de la Fuente’s high-tempo 4-3-3, which has overwhelmed stronger defenses.

Spain’s possession dominance and turnovers should control the game, with Yamal and Williams targeting Inacio’s inexperience. Portugal’s set-piece threat: Ronaldo and Dias excel aerially could punish Spain, but Costa’s saves may limit damage. Sentiments on social media leans toward Spain’s youth, with Yamal’s semi-final heroics praised, though Ronaldo’s clutch ability keeps Portugal in contention.

Predicted Scoreline: Spain 2-1 Portugal. Spain’s attacking trio—Yamal, Williams, and Olmo exploit Portugal’s tired defense. However an alternative result could end in a 2-all draw with Spain earning the victory through penalties.