Portugal vs Germany: UEFA Nations League preview, predictions
The UEFA Nations League semi-finals ignite on Wednesday, June 4 (8:00 PM WAT) at the Munich Football Arena in Germany, where Portugal face hosts Germany in a clash of titans. The winners will advance to the final on June 8 against either Spain or France, while the losers contest third place in Stuttgart. Portugal, the 2019 champions, aim to become the first nation to lift the trophy twice, while Germany, first-time semi-finalists, seek to restore national pride on home soil. With both teams showcasing attacking flair and tactics, this match promises intensity and drama. This piece is set to analyze performances, tactics, team news, injuries, head-to-head statistics, and predict scorelines.
Portugal performances
Portugal secured their semi-final spot with a thrilling 5-3 aggregate win over Denmark in the quarter-finals on March 23, 2025, overcoming a 1-0 first-leg deficit with a 5-2 second-leg triumph, sealed by Francisco Trincao’s extra-time strike and Goncalo Ramos’ late goal. Their 2024/25 Nations League campaign saw 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in 8 matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding 5. A 2-1 win over Scotland and a 2-1 victory against Poland highlighted their resilience. Portugal’s 1.6 xG and 51% possession reflect a balanced approach, but their 0.6 xGA and 3 clean sheets in 8 games show defensive solidity.
Portugal’s tactics
Roberto Martinez’s 4-2-3-1 shifts to a 4-3-3 in attack, emphasizing fluidity and width. Cristiano Ronaldo, 40, remains the focal point with 2 goals in the Nations League, supported by Rafael Leao’s dribbles and Bernardo Silva’s key passes. Midfielders Vitinha and Bruno Fernandes provide creativity, though Joao Neves and Nuno Mendes may be benched due to Champions League final fatigue. Defensively, Ruben Dias and Goncalo Inacio anchor the backline, with Diogo Costa’s 75% save percentage and 2.9 saves per 90 crucial, according to Opta Analyst. Portugal’s 8.1 turnovers per game will target Germany’s injury-hit defense with quick transitions.
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Germany performances
Germany, hosting the final four, qualified with a 5-4 aggregate win over Italy in the quarter-finals on March 23, 2025, despite conceding 3 goals in the second leg. Their 2024/25 Nations League record shows 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in 8 matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding 6. A 5-0 thrashing of Hungary and a 2-1 win over Italy highlighted their attacking potency. Germany’s 1.8 xG and 54% possession reflect dominance, but their 0.8 xGA and 2 clean sheets in 8 games suggest defensive concerns, especially with injuries.
Germany tactics
Julian Nagelsmann’s 4-2-3-1 emphasizes a high press and overloads in key areas. Florian Wirtz, back from injury, drives the attack with 3 goals and 1.8 key passes per 90, filling the void left by Jamal Musiala. Joshua Kimmich, set for his 100th cap, operates at right-back but influences play with 1.5 key passes per 90, having been involved in all 5 goals against Italy. In the front line, Deniz Undav or Jamie Woltemade may lead the line, with Niclas Fullkrug sidelined. The backline, led by Jonathan Tah, relies on Manuel Neuer’s 73% save percentage and 2.7 saves per 90 according to Opta Analyst. Germany will exploit Portugal’s fatigued midfield with Wirtz’s creativity.
Portugal vs Germany head-to-head statistics
Germany and Portugal have met 19 times, with Germany leading 10-5, and 4 draws. In competitive matches, Germany hold a 5-3 advantage, with their last encounter; a 4-2 win at Euro 2020 in Munich highlighting their dominance at the Allianz Arena. This is their first Nations League meeting, but Germany’s 3 wins in the last 5 competitive clashes, including a 4-0 World Cup 2014 thrashing, give them a psychological edge. Ronaldo has never beaten Germany in 5 attempts. Portugal’s last win was a 3-0 friendly in 2000, making this a big challenge.
Portugal vs Germany predictions
Germany are slight favorites based on home advantage. Portugal’s 1.6 xG and 0.6 xGA suggest resilience, but their fatigued midfield; Neves, Vitinha, and Mendes likely benched may struggle against Germany’s 8.4 turnovers per game, according to Opta Analyst. Germany’s injury crisis, missing Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, and Musiala, weakens their defense, with Tah and Kimmich facing a pressure from Ronaldo and Leao. Portugal’s 3 clean sheets in 8 games contrast with Germany’s 2, but Germany’s 15 goals in 8 matches outpace Portugal’s 13. Nagelsmann’s high press and Wirtz’s return give Germany an edge in midfield, while Martinez’s reliance on fresh legs like Palhinha and Semedo aims to counter.
