Petrol prices in South Africa set for October uptick amid global oil pressures
Car at a petrol station. Photo Credit- News24
South African drivers are bracing for a modest rise in petrol prices starting October 2, 2025, as preliminary data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) signals an end to recent stability. Despite a resilient rand providing some cushion, negative recoveries driven by international product price trends will push unleaded petrol 93 up by 5 cents per litre and unleaded petrol 95 by 13 cents per litre. These adjustments come after months of volatility, underscoring the delicate interplay between local currency strength and global energy markets.
In a partial silver lining, diesel and paraffin users will see relief. Wholesale diesel 0.05% is forecast to dip by 8 cents per litre, with diesel 0.005% falling by 6 cents per litre. Illuminating paraffin, a staple for many low-income households, is expected to decrease by 12 cents per litre. However, the outlook for diesel remains precarious, with its over-recovery narrowing from nearly 20 cents per litre at the month’s start to just 7 cents now, as rising international prices erode gains.
The price shifts are primarily fueled by an adverse slate from global product markets, contributing between -16 and -24 cents per litre to the under-recovery, partially offset by the rand’s positive impact of around 11 cents per litre. The South African currency has held firm, bolstered by a widened 300 basis point interest rate differential with the US following the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point cut, while the South African Reserve Bank maintains its stance. Yet, experts caution that any rand depreciation could deepen the negatives, potentially swinging diesel into under-recovery territory by month’s end.
Brent crude oil prices, which spiked to around $70 per barrel this week amid Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure and US calls to halt Russian crude imports, have since eased to about $67 per barrel, still above August’s $66 average. OPEC+ strategies, including output increases tempered by cuts, continue to support prices in a tight range. Bloomberg noted, “Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are giving some upside support to prices, but it’s still tempered by a market looking for a surplus in the months ahead,” adding that the oil market is “largely ignoring the Fed for now.”
The International Energy Agency’s forecast of a record crude supply surplus in 2026 offers hope for capping future hikes, but for now, the October increases add pressure on transport-dependent households and businesses. The Automobile Association recommends monitoring weekly CEF updates, as final figures could adjust with late-month developments. As South Africa grapples with these trends, the focus remains on sustaining rand strength to mitigate broader economic ripple effects from energy costs.
FAQs about South Africa’s petrol prices
What are the projected petrol price changes for October 2025 in South Africa ?
Uneaded petrol 93 is set to increase by 5 cents per litre, while unleaded petrol 95 will rise by 13 cents per litre, effective from October 2, 2025.
How will diesel and paraffin prices change in October 2025?
Wholesale diesel 0.05% will decrease by 8 cents per litre, diesel 0.005% by 6 cents per litre, and illuminating paraffin by 12 cents per litre.
Why are petrol prices increasing despite a stronger rand?
The hikes stem from negative contributions of -16 to -24 cents per litre from international product prices, outweighing the rand’s positive 11 cents per litre impact.
What is the current status of diesel over-recovery in South Africa?
Diesel’s over-recovery has narrowed to about 7 cents per litre from nearly 20 cents at the start of September, due to rising global product prices.
How have global oil prices influenced South African fuel costs?
Brent crude spiked to $70 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions but eased to $67, with OPEC+ strategies supporting prices in a tight range.
What role does the rand play in fuel pricing?
A stronger rand, driven by a 300 basis point US interest rate differential, contributes positively (around 11 cents per litre) but can’t fully offset global negatives.
What is the outlook for fuel prices beyond October 2025?
A projected record crude supply surplus in 2026 could limit hikes, but rand weakness or oil surges might lead to further increases.
