Nigeria’s Petrol Imports Fell 59%—But September Supply Still Lagged Consumption
Nigeria’s petrol import rate has fallen sharply this year, but the latest regulator figures show why a lower import bill does not automatically mean a more secure fuel supply. In September, total petrol receipts averaged 38.7 million litres a day while reported consumption reached 44.4 million litres—an accounting gap of 5.7 million litres per day.
The figures, in the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s September 2026 factsheet, also show domestic supply making up most recorded receipts. The data is a snapshot of flows and stocks; it does not by itself prove shortages at every filling station or explain local pump prices.
What changed in petrol imports and local supply?
Average daily petrol imports declined from 24.8 million litres in January to 10.2 million litres in September, a 58.9 per cent drop. In September, domestic receipts were 28.5 million litres a day and imports 10.2 million, so locally supplied petrol accounted for about 73.6 per cent of the 38.7 million litres received.
That is a major change in the supply mix, but the month-to-month numbers were not a straight downward line for imports. The rate fell to 3.0 million litres a day in February, climbed to 19.7 million in July, then dropped to 14.6 million in August and 10.2 million in September. September’s import level was therefore nearly half July’s, but it was not zero.
Why lower imports did not close September’s supply gap
Total petrol receipts fell 23.4 per cent from 50.5 million litres a day in August to 38.7 million in September. Domestic receipts also declined, by 20.6 per cent, while imports fell 30.1 per cent. Over the same month, reported petrol consumption—measured by volumes trucked out to the domestic market—rose 7 per cent, from 41.5 million to 44.4 million litres a day.
Those measures are not a perfect like-for-like count of fuel available at every moment: receipts, truck-outs and stock changes describe different parts of the supply chain. The 5.7-million-litre difference should be read as a system-level signal to examine, not as proof that every Nigerian consumer faced a shortage or that imports alone determine pump prices.
What the stock figure says—and what it cannot tell us
Petrol stock cover stood at 23.9 days at the end of September, up slightly from 22.9 days in August but still 6.1 days below the NMDPRA’s 30-day benchmark. Stock cover is an estimate of how long recorded stocks could meet demand at the relevant rate; it is not a forecast of when stations will run dry.
The key question for the next monthly release is whether domestic refineries can sustain deliveries as imports remain lower, and whether aggregate receipts and reported consumption move closer together. September’s figures show local refining has changed the balance, while also showing that consistency and stock resilience still matter.
Sources and methodology
The figures are from the NMDPRA September 2026 sector factsheet, as reported by Punch. The October 23 report details the monthly series and explains that NMDPRA measures consumption using volumes trucked out. See also this corroborating report on the September factsheet. Percentages are calculated from the reported daily averages and rounded to one decimal place.