Man United vs Athletic Bilbao: UEL semi-final preview, predictions

Old Trafford, Manchester, is set to host a crucial UEFA Europa League semi-final second leg on Thursday, May 8, at 8:00 PM (GMT), as Manchester United hold a commanding 3-0 lead over Athletic Bilbao from the first leg. Ruben Amorim’s Red Devils, led by Bruno Fernandes’ brace and Casemiro’s header at San Mamés, aim to secure a spot in the final against Tottenham or Bodø/Glimt on May 21. Ernesto Valverde’s Basque side, reeling from a red card to Dani Vivian and a goalless draw against Real Sociedad, face a near-impossible task to overturn the deficit. With United’s Premier League woes contrasting their European heroics, and Bilbao’s top-four La Liga push faltering, this tie is a tale of redemption versus resilience. This piece is set to analyze performances, tactics, team news, head-to-head statistics, and predict the scorelines.

Manchester United’s form

Manchester United, languishing in 15th in the Premier League with 39 points from 35 matches, suffered a 4-3 loss at Brentford on May 4, their 16th league defeat. Yet, their Europa League campaign is a beacon of hope, with an unbeaten record, including a 5-4 extra-time comeback against Lyon and a 3-0 first-leg rout of Bilbao. Their 2.58 xG and 14 shots in the first leg, compared to Bilbao’s 0.98 xG and 9 shots, shows clinical finishing. United’s 2.1 xG per game and 31 goals in 13 Europa League matches contrast their domestic goals. However, conceding 4 goals at Brentford and 38.7% of league goals from set pieces expose defensive weakness. Winning the Europa League is their only path to Champions League football and a chance for a silverware this season.

Man United tactics

Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 shifts to a 4-4-2 press and 5-4-1 low block, emphasizing counterattacks and set-piece threat. Bruno Fernandes orchestrates, with Alejandro Garnacho’s dribbles and Rasmus Hojlund’s physicality. Casemiro and Manuel Ugarte anchor midfield, while Harry Maguire’s “Harrydinho” flair, including a first-leg assist, bolsters a back three with Leny Yoro and Victor Lindelof. Noussair Mazraoui and Patrick Dorgu stretch play as wing-backs. Amorim’s eight changes against Brentford prioritized Bilbao, but set-piece defending is a concern. Amad Diallo’s return could spark counters.

Man United team news and injuries

United’s injury crisis persists. Matthijs de Ligt (unspecified injury from Brentford) is a doubt, with Amorim “concerned” but hopeful, Lisandro Martínez (ACL), Joshua Zirkzee (hamstring) are out for the season. Amad Diallo and De Ligt returned as substitutes against Brentford, with Diallo’s 9 goals and 8 assists pre-injury a boost. Ayden Heaven (ankle) and Toby Collyer (leg) are doubts. No suspensions loom, with UEFA rules clearing yellow-card risks for the final. Mason Mount who opened the scoring against Brentford, may feature.

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Athletic Bilbao form

Athletic Bilbao, fourth in La Liga with 58 points from 34 matches, drew 0-0 at Real Sociedad on May 4, managing just 3 shots. Their Europa League campaign saw 4-3 and 2-0 aggregate wins over Roma and Rangers, but the 3-0 first-leg loss to United compounded by Vivian’s red card was a crushing blow. Bilbao’s 1.58 goals per game and 1.1 xGA reflect potency and solidity, but their 0.98 xG and 9 shots in the first leg were toothless post-red card. Their set-piece ability is different compared to defensive lapses. The dream of a home final at San Mamés on May 21 is fading.

Athletic Bilbao tactics

Ernesto Valverde’s 4-2-3-1 (or 4-4-2) leverages a high press (7.8 turnovers per game) and wing play. Without Oihan Sancet, Gorka Guruzeta leads the line, with Nico Williams and Alvaro Djalo on the flanks. Ander Herrera and Mikel Jauregizar anchor midfield, while Inaki Williams’ versatility adds threat. Yeray Alvarez and Aitor Paredes replace the suspended Vivian, conceding. Bilbao’s early first-leg intensity must be sustained to exploit United’s defense. Valverde’s seven changes against Sociedad prioritized United.

Athletic Bilbao team news and injuries

Bilbao face significant absences. Dani Vivian is suspended after his first-leg red card for fouling Hojlund, a “huge blow,” Oihan Sancet (muscular injury, 17 goals) is a major doubt, Nico Williams (groin) played 79 minutes in the first leg and is fit. Yuri Berchiche (calf) is expected to feature. No new injuries are reported from the Sociedad draw. No further suspensions loom, but Bilbao’s depth is tested.

Man United vs Athletic Bilbao head-to-head statistics

Based on UEFA.com and Flashscore, the last 10 competitive meetings show Bilbao’s historical edge, though United dominate recently: Athletic Bilbao holds a superior 5 win record, while Man United with 3 wins, and 2 draws in their last 10 fixtures. Athletic Bilbao have scored 19 goals, while Man United with 18 goals. United’s 3-0 first-leg win is their largest in the rivalry. Bilbao’s 5-3 aggregate win in 2012 under Marcelo Bielsa remains their benchmark, United are the 134th team to win a Europa League/UEFA Cup knockout first leg by 3+ goals away, with all 133 prior teams advancing. Six of 10 games saw over 2.5 goals, averaging 3.7 goals per game.

Man United vs Athletic Bilbao predictions

United are overwhelming favorites, with a 3-0 lead and Old Trafford’s backing. Their Europa League record and Fernandes’ 35 goal involvements makes them formidable. Amorim’s 3-4-2-1, with Maguire’s flair and Garnacho’s pace, exploited Bilbao’s 10-man defense in the first leg. Diallo’s return and physicality add depth. However, injuries and set-piece defending are concerns, especially after Brentford’s 4 goals. Amorim’s focus on Europe ensures a strong lineup.

Bilbao face a tough task. Their 0-0 Sociedad draw and 3 shots show limited attacking threat without Sancet. Vivian’s suspension weakens their defense and their first leg performances highlights struggles. Nico Williams’ pace and set-piece threat could test United’s defense but overturning a 3-0 deficit requires a miracle.

Predicted Scoreline: Manchester United 2-1 Athletic Bilbao (United advance 5-1on aggregate). United’s press and Fernandes’ creativity overwhelm Bilbao’s depleted defense. Bilbao’s early intensity may reduce without Vivian and Sancet. Maguire’s set-piece threat is an added advantage. However an alternative result could end in a 2-all draw (United advance 5-2 on aggregate).