Madagascar vs Sudan: CHAN 2024 semifinal preview, H2H, prediction

The 2024 African Nations Championship (CHAN), co-hosted by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, reaches a pivotal moment as Madagascar and Sudan face off in the first semifinal on August 26, 2025, at 5:30 PM (GMT) at the Benjamin Mkapa Stadium in Dar es Salaam. With both teams defying expectations to reach the final four of this tournament for domestic league players, this matchup promises to be a thrilling battle of resilience, tactical discipline, and attacking flair. Below, we explore both teams’ performances, tactical approaches, and predict the potential scoreline for this historic encounter.

Madagascar’s performance

Madagascar, nicknamed the Barea, have been the surprise package of CHAN 2024, reaching their first-ever semifinal. After a shaky group stage in Group B, where they secured seven points (two wins, one draw, one loss) and finished second behind Tanzania, Madagascar stunned hosts Kenya in the quarterfinals. A 1-1 draw, with Fenohasina Razafimaro’s penalty equalizing Alphonce Omija’s header, led to a 4-3 penalty shootout victory, with 39-year-old goalkeeper Michel Ramandimbisoa saving twice and Toky Rakotondraibe scoring the decisive kick. Their five goals in the group stage, including a 2-1 win over Burkina Faso, highlight their offensive threat, though their defense conceded three goals, exposing occasional vulnerabilities.

Madagascar tactical approach

Under coach Romuald Felix Rakotondrabe, Madagascar employs a compact 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing quick transitions and counter-attacks. Nantenaina “Tony” Elysee Randriamanampisoa leads the attack, supported by wingers like Toky Rakotondraibe, who exploit wide channels. The Barea’s midfield, anchored by Arohasina Andrianarimanana, focuses on breaking up play and launching rapid counters, as seen in their COSAFA Cup win over Tanzania in June 2024. Defensively, they rely on Ramandimbisoa’s experience and a disciplined backline, though the absence of captain Dax due to suspension has forced adjustments. Their penalty shootout prowess, demonstrated against Kenya, suggests mental toughness in high-pressure moments.

Key players in Madagascar

Michel Ramandimbisoa (GK), with 17 saves in the group stage, the veteran keeper is a rock at the back, crucial in shootouts. Fenohasina Razafimaro (MF), his penalty-taking and work rate in midfield drive Madagascar’s transitions and Nantenaina “Tony” Randriamanampisoa (FW), with his pace and finishing make him a constant threat.

Sudan’s performance

Sudan, the Falcons of Jediane, have been a revelation under Ghanaian coach Kwesi Appiah, remaining unbeaten in CHAN 2024. They topped Group D with a 4-0 thrashing of Nigeria, a draw against Senegal, and a 1-1 stalemate with Congo. In the quarterfinals, Sudan eliminated 2022 finalists Algeria 4-2 on penalties after a 1-1 draw, with Musa Hussien’s shot leading to an own goal by Algeria’s Ayoub Ghezala and goalkeeper Mohamed Abooja saving twice in the shootout. Sudan’s seven goals in the group stage and just two conceded underline their balance, with their 4-0 Nigeria win showcasing their attacking potency.

Sudan tactical approach

Sudan deploys a 4-3-3 formation, blending defensive solidity with explosive counter-attacks. Appiah’s side prioritizes a high press, led by midfielders Walieldin Khidir and Mohamed Ahmed Saeed, to disrupt opponents early. Up top, Musa Hussien’s movement and finishing stretch defenses, while wingers exploit flanks to deliver crosses. Defensively, Sudan’s backline, marshaled by Salaheldin Adli (despite injury concerns), is compact, with Abooja’s shot-stopping proving vital. Their ability to hold firm under pressure, as seen against Algeria, and capitalize on set pieces makes them dangerous.

Key players in Sudan

Mohamed Abooja (GK), the shootout hero against Algeria, with two saves, has been a backbone with eight saves in the tournament. Musa Hussien (FW), with his goal-scoring instinct and ability to create chaos, as seen in the Nigeria rout, make him Sudan’s talisman and Walieldin Khidir (MF), a box-to-box dynamo, his pressing set the tone.

Madagascar vs Sudan head-to-head record

Sudan and Madagascar have a storied rivalry, with their last CHAN meeting in 2023 ending in a 3-0 Madagascar victory, thanks to goals from Olivier Tokinantenaina, Solom Raza, and Lalaina Rafanomezantsoa. However, Sudan hold a slight historical edge, with three wins to Madagascar’s two in six competitive meetings. Their most recent clash, a 2024 CHAN qualifier, saw Madagascar advance 2-1 on aggregate. This semifinal marks their first knockout-stage encounter, adding extra stakes to an already intense rivalry.

Madagascar vs Sudan score prediction

Given both teams’ defensive solidity and counter-attacking styles, a low-scoring, tightly contested match is likely. Madagascar’s home support in Dar es Salaam and recent form give them a slight edge, but Sudan’s unbeaten run and Appiah’s tactical nous make them formidable. The Stats Zone’s analysis of Madagascar’s five goals scored versus Kenya’s one conceded suggests a game under 3.5 goals.

Predicted Score: Madagascar 1-0 Sudan. A late goal from Randriamanampisoa, capitalizing on a counter-attack, could secure Madagascar’s place in their first CHAN final. Sudan’s defensive resilience may keep it close, but Madagascar’s momentum and shootout experience tilt the scales.