Liverpool vs Arsenal: Premier League match preview, prediction

Anfield, Liverpool, prepares for a titanic Premier League clash as champions Liverpool host second-placed Arsenal on Sunday, May 11, at 4:30 PM (GMT). Arne Slot’s Reds, crowned 2024/25 champions with a 5-1 rout of Tottenham, aim to celebrate their 20th English title with a home flourish. Mikel Arteta’s Gunners, recovering from a Champions League semi-final exit to PSG (3-1 aggregate) and a 2-1 Premier League loss to Bournemouth, fight to secure a top-four spot with Manchester City and Newcastle closing in. With Liverpool’s scoring streak and Arsenal’s set-piece woes, this match promises drama. This piece is set to explore and analyze both club’s form, tactics, team news, head-to-head statistics, and predict scorelines.

Liverpool’s form

Liverpool, atop the Premier League with 82 points from 35 matches, clinched the title with four games to spare. Their 5-1 thrashing of Tottenham on April 27, with goals from Luis Diaz, Alexis Mac Allister, Cody Gakpo, Mohamed Salah, and Diogo Jota, sealed their record-equaling 20th top-flight crown. A 3-1 loss at Chelsea on May 4, their first defeat since February, was a surprise. Liverpool’s 30-game scoring streak, the second-longest in a single Premier League campaign yields 2.49 goals per game and 2.2 xG, according to Opta Analyst. Their 44 points from 17 home games and 14 wins in 15 Anfield league matches since a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September make them formidable. However, conceding 1 goal per game in their last 5 matches shows some defensive lapses.

Liverpool’s tactics

Arne Slot’s 4-2-3-1 combines high press with quick transitions. Mohamed Salah, one goal involvement shy of Alan Shearer’s record (47), leads the attack, with 11 goals against Arsenal. Curtis Jones and Ryan Gravenberch anchor midfield, while Diaz and Jota exploit flanks. Virgil van Dijk, on his 300th Premier League appearance, and Ibrahima Konate form a defense, with Alisson’s elite saves. Liverpool’s set-piece goals target Arsenal’s set-piece weakness. Slot’s rotations resting Konate, Andy Robertson, and Mac Allister against Chelsea ensure freshness.

Liverpool team news and injuries

Liverpool’s main concern is Joe Gomez (hamstring), doubtful but nearing a return. Young midfielder Tyler Morton (shoulder) is out. Trent Alexander-Arnold, reportedly benched due to his impending Real Madrid move, may be replaced by Conor Bradley. No suspensions loom, and Slot’s full-strength squad, including returns of Konate, Robertson, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, and Diaz, is expected. Alisson, Van Dijk, and Salah are confirmed starters.

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Arsenal’s performances

Arsenal, second with 67 points from 35 matches, are faltering, losing 2-1 to Bournemouth on May 3 and exiting the Champions League to PSG (2-1 second leg, 3-1 aggregate) on May 7. Their 1.91 goals per game and 2.0 xG are strong, but 21 points dropped from winning positions, shows inconsistency according to Opta Analyst. A 3-0 win over Brighton on April 12 and a 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace on April 23 show resilience, but their set-piece defending is a weak spot. Arsenal’s away record since a 1-0 loss at Newcastle in November offers hope.

Arsenal’s tactics

Mikel Arteta’s 4-3-3 (or 4-2-3-1) relies on a high press (8.8 turnovers per game) and set-piece scoring (10 goals). Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard are key, with Martin Odegaard’s key passes creating chances. Declan Rice anchors midfield, while William Saliba and Jakub Kiwior defend. Gabriel Martinelli’s 7 goal involvements vs Liverpool (5 goals, 2 assists) target Anfield. Arteta’s post-PSG adjustments potentially starting Thomas Partey to free Rice aim to counter Liverpool’s press. However, Arsenal’s set-piece defending is a concerns.

Arsenal’s team news and injuries

Arsenal’s injury crisis is severe. Kai Havertz (hamstring), Gabriel Magalhaes (knee), Gabriel Jesus (knee), and Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee) are out, with Havertz possibly returning before the end of the season. Jurrien Timber and Odegaard, recovering from knocks vs. Bournemouth, are fit. Riccardo Calafiori and Jorginho returned in the match against PSG, but Ben White (knee), Mikel Merino (hamstring) are doubtful. No suspensions apply, but Arteta may start Myles Lewis-Skelly or Ethan Nwaneri.

Liverpool vs Arsenal’s head-to-head statistics

Based on BBC Sport and Sports Mole, Liverpool hold a slight edge, with the Reds securing five wins, while the Gunners have 2 wins, and 3 draws. Liverpool has scored 20 goals in their last 10 fixtures against the Gunners with 14 goals. Liverpool are unbeaten in 14 home games vs Arsenal across all competitions (W7 D7) since a 2-0 loss in September 2012. Salah’s 11 Premier League goals against Arsenal are his second-most against any team in the league. Six of 10 games saw over 2.5 goals, averaging 3.4 goals per game. Arsenal’s 2-1 win over champions Liverpool in July 2020 shows potential.

Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction

Liverpool enter this fixture as favorites. Their home record points, 30-game scoring streak, and Salah’s 46 goal involvements make the Reds lethal. Slot’s rested squad and 8.2 corners per game exploit Arsenal’s 38.7% set-piece concessions. However, their Chelsea loss and Gomez’s absence could expose defensive gaps.

Arsenal’s 12-game away unbeaten record and Saka’s 22 goal involvements and Trossard’s 6 goals against Liverpool are threats, but injuries and 21 dropped points from winning positions shows inconsistency. Arteta’s press could target Liverpool’s defense , but their PSG fatigue is no match for Liverpool’s intensity.

Predicted Scoreline: Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal. Liverpool’s press and Salah’s form could exploit Arsenal’s injury-hit defense. However, an alternative result could end in a 2-all draw.