Lesotho vs South Africa: 2026 W/Cup qualifiers preview, H2H, prediction

South Africa’s Bafana Bafana face Lesotho’s Likuena at the Free State Stadium (Toyota Stadium) on Friday, September 5, 2025, at 6:00 PM CAT in Matchday 7 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup African Qualifiers in Group C. Despite being an away match for South Africa, the game is hosted on their home soil due to Lesotho’s lack of a FIFA-approved stadium, adding a unique dynamic to this regional rivalry. With South Africa leading the group and Lesotho struggling at the bottom, this preview explores recent performances, tactics, team news, head-to-head statistics, and predicts the potential scoreline.

South Africa’s recent performances

South Africa, ranked 57th globally, top Group C with 13 points from six matches, boasting four wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring 13 goals and conceding four. Their campaign began with a 1-1 draw against Nigeria in November 2023, followed by a 2-0 win over Benin. A 3-1 victory against Zimbabwe and a 2-0 triumph over Lesotho in March 2025, with goals from Relebohile Mofokeng and Jayden Adams, solidified their lead. A 2-0 win against Benin in Ivory Coast on March 25, 2025, further strengthened their position, though a potential three-point deduction for fielding an ineligible Teboho Mokoena against Lesotho remains under FIFA review.

South Africa tactical approach

Broos employs a 4-2-3-1 formation, blending high pressing with quick transitions, as seen in their 10 shots on target against South Sudan. Midfielders Mokoena and Jayden Adams control tempo, with Mokoena’s long-range passing creating chances for wingers Lyle Foster and Relebohile Mofokeng. Up top, Iqraam Rayners, with three goals and four assists in his last five games, is a focal point. Defensively, Khuliso Mudau and Thabo Moloisane form a solid backline, though lapses, like conceding late against Zimbabwe, persist. South Africa’s five first-half goals in their last six matches and three set-piece goals, will target Lesotho’s shaky defense. Broos’ emphasis on “fighting for every square meter,” as told to CAFOnline, suggests an aggressive approach in Bloemfontein.

South Africa team news and injuries

South Africa’s 23-man squad, announced on August 28, 2025, sees Patrick Maswanganyi withdrawn due to a minor thigh injury, replaced by Sipho Mbule, per Sports Mole. Hannover 96’s Ime Okon is also sidelined with a knee injury, with Thabo Moloisane stepping in. Mokoena, despite the eligibility issue, is available pending FIFA’s ruling, and Broos confirmed his inclusion. Ronwen Williams is expected to start in goal, with Foster and Rayners competing for the striker role. Thalente Mbatha could replace the injured Maswanganyi in the attacking midfield, adding dynamism. No suspensions loom, giving Broos flexibility to field a near-full-strength side.

Lesotho’s recent performances

Lesotho, ranked 151st globally, sit sixth in Group C with five points from six matches, with one win, two draws, and three losses, scoring three goals and conceding six. Their campaign started with a 1-1 draw against Nigeria in Uyo, a notable result, followed by a 0-0 draw with Zimbabwe. A 2-0 loss to South Africa and a 1-0 defeat to Rwanda in June 2024 highlighted their scoring woes, with three goalless outings in their last four qualifiers. A 1-1 draw with Rwanda in March 2025, where Lethabo Fothoane equalized after Jules Kwizera’s goal, showed resilience, but their COSAFA Cup campaign (one win, two losses, one goal scored) showed their struggles.

Lesotho tactical approach

Coach Leslie Notsi uses a 5-4-1 formation, prioritizing defensive solidity, as seen in their 39% possession and one goal conceded against Nigeria. Goalkeeper Sekhoane Moerane, playing for South Africa’s Orbit College, anchors a backline with Thabo Makhele and Fusi Matlabe. Midfielders Jane Thaba-Ntso and Tlotliso Phatsisi focus on breaking up play, while Sore Motebang, Lesotho’s second all-time top scorer with 12 goals, leads the attack. Lesotho’s three set-piece goals in qualifiers, per CAF, are their main threat, but their 0.5 goals-per-game average limits their attack. Notsi will likely park the bus, aiming to frustrate South Africa and counter through Motebang.

Lesotho team news and injuries

Lesotho’s 22-man squad, announced on August 30, 2025, includes Thabo Makhele, who switched allegiance from South Africa’s U-23s, and Moerane, who impressed in the South African top division. No injuries have been reported, but Rethabile Mokokoane is doubtful after a knock in a recent friendly, per Lesotho FA’s statement. Matlabe and Toloane are expected to start in defense and midfield, respectively, with Motebang as the lone striker. Substitutes like Tumelo Makha and Tsepang Sefali offer pace but lack experience. Notsi’s limited options mean reliance on defensive discipline.

South Africa vs Lesotho head-to-head statistics

South Africa and Lesotho have met three times in competitive fixtures since 2005, with South Africa unbeaten: two wins and one draw, per Sportsdunia. Their most recent clash, a 2-0 South Africa win on March 21, 2025, at Peter Mokaba Stadium, saw Mofokeng and Adams score. A 0-0 friendly draw in January 2024 and a 2-1 South Africa win in a 2005 World Cup qualifier complete the record. South Africa have scored four goals to Lesotho’s one, with 67% of games seeing under 2.5 goals and South Africa keeping two clean sheets. Lesotho’s failure to score in three of their last four qualifiers against South Africa underscores the challenge.

South Africa vs Lesotho score prediction

South Africa’s form, depth, and home advantage make them favorites, but Lesotho’s defensive resolve and set-piece threat add caution. Critics predicts a “comfortable South Africa win,” citing their 15-match unbeaten run and Lesotho’s low-scoring games. South Africa’s 13 goals in six qualifiers contrast with Lesotho’s three. Expect Bafana to dominate possession (around 60%) and exploit Lesotho’s defense, though a late counter could trouble them.

Predicted Score: Lesotho 0-2 South Africa. Rayners and Mofokeng are likely to score, capitalizing on set pieces and wing play. Lesotho may hold firm early, but South Africa’s quality should secure a clean-sheet victory. Some betting tips to use: Play South Africa to win, play under 2.5, do not play both teams to score, and South Africa to win either halves.

How to watch

The match will be broadcast live on SuperSport PSL and SuperSport Africa, with streaming on the FIFA+ app. Tickets, starting at R70.00 for adults, are available at the Free State Stadium from August 2, 2025.