La Liga 2025/26: Atletico vs Real Madrid match preview, prediction, betting tips
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid in the la Liga Madrid Derby. Photo Credit- Khel Now
The Riyadh Air Metropolitano ignites on Saturday, September 27, at 3:15 PM UK time (4:15 PM WAT), as Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in the season’s first El Derbi Madrileño. Diego Simeone’s Colchoneros, desperate to reignite their faltering campaign, face a Real side under Xabi Alonso that’s stormed to the La Liga summit with an unbeaten record. This clash will feature Simeone’s gritty, counter-attacking style against Alonso’s fluid possession machine, could shape both teams’ title trajectories. For Atletico, a win would cut their nine-point deficit and boost their ninth-place bid; for Real, a victory extends their lead to 12 points, reinforcing dominance in a fixture historically tense and low-scoring. With the Champions League on pause post-matchday one, this derby takes center stage under the Madrid spotlight.
Atletico recent form
Atletico, sitting ninth with nine points (two wins, three draws, one loss), show resilience amid inconsistency. A dramatic 3-2 comeback against Rayo Vallecano midweek, Julian Alvarez’s hat-trick overturning a deficit, eased pressure after a 2-2 draw at Villarreal and a 1-0 UCL loss to Liverpool. They’ve scored eight league goals but conceded seven, with home form, their saving grace.
Atletico tactics
Simeone’s 5-3-2 is a low-block fortress, frustrating Real’s wide threats with double pivots (Koke and Conor Gallagher) shielding a back five, while Marcos Llorente’s box-to-box runs fuel Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann on counters. Set-pieces are key, 28% of goals come from dead balls, with physical duels targeting Real’s injury-hit defense. Their 42% possession reflects efficiency in transitions, though early concessions could invite Mbappe’s pace.
Atletico team news and injuries
Atletico’s injury list thins slightly: Jose Maria Gimenez (knee), Thiago Almada (muscle), and Johnny Cardoso (thigh) remain out, forcing Cesar Azpilicueta or David Hancko into central defense. Positives: Alvarez (four goals) is fit post-hat-trick, Griezmann returns from international duty, and Alexander Sorloth (one goal) vies for minutes. No suspensions, but Simeone may rotate Pablo Barrios.
Predicted Atletico XI (5-3-2): Oblak; Molina, Azpilicueta, Le Normand, Witsel, Reinildo; Llorente, Koke, Gallagher; Griezmann, Alvarez.
RELATED STORIES
Top 10 most valuable players shaping the 2025/26 LaLiga season
Yamal, Mbappe others as 2024/25 Season most valuable players
Real Madrid recent performances
Real Madrid enter unbeaten across all competitions, their La Liga start a juggernaut: six wins from six, including a 4-1 thrashing of Levante last time out, totaling 18 points and 14 goals while conceding just three. Kylian Mbappe’s seven league goals and Vinicius Junior’s three assists highlight a side averaging 2.3 goals per game under Alonso, whose tactics, leveraging inverted full-backs and midfield overloads, have silenced critics after a Club World Cup quarter-final exit.
Real Madrid tactics
Alonso’s 4-3-3 thrives on 65% possession, with Aurelien Tchouameni anchoring for Federico Valverde and Arda Guler’s creativity, feeding Mbappe centrally and Vinicius on the left. Inverted right-back options create overloads, and a high press could disrupt Atletico’s build-up. The midfield duel, Gallagher vs Valverde, will dictate control.
Real Madrid team news and injuries
Los Blancos face a defensive crisis: Trent Alexander-Arnold (hamstring), Ferland Mendy (thigh), Antonio Rudiger (thigh), and Andriy Lunin (back) are absent, with Dean Huijsen partnering Eder Militao and Alvaro Carreras at left-back. Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga (both ankle/muscle) return but limited (22 and 11 minutes last game), while Endrick (hamstring) nears a bench role. Mbappe shakes off a minor fever, and Thibaut Courtois starts. Brahim Díaz (adductor) is doubtful.
Predicted Real Madrid XI (4-3-3): Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Huijsen, Carreras; Tchouameni, Valverde, Guler; Rodrygo, Mbappe, Vinicius.
Atletico vs Real Madrid head-to-head statistics
Across 240 official meetings, Real Madrid lead 123-59 with 58 draws (235-123 goals), but La Liga edges tighter: 91 Real wins, 41 Atletico, 44 draws. Recent league history favours Atletico, including three straight 1-1s – the last in February 2025 at the Bernabéu. Their sole recent win was a 1-0 UCL revenge in March 2025. Overall, 60% of the last 10 league clashes under 2.5 goals, with BTTS in 40%. Real’s away hoodoo persists: just two league wins at the Metropolitano since 2016.
Atletico vs Real Madrid prediction
Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Madrid. Real’s attack tempts an away win, but Atletico’s derby grit and Real’s depleted defense suggest a stalemate. Alvarez scores on a counter for the hosts, but Mbappe’s pace levels it late.
