Nigeria’s qualification hopes for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations will not depend solely on the Super Eagles’ performances against Tanzania, as the results of Guinea-Bissau’s two matches against Madagascar could significantly influence the Group L standings.
The Super Eagles are currently second with three points from two matches, trailing Guinea-Bissau by three points.
While Nigeria prepare to face Tanzania in Uyo on Friday, November 13, Guinea-Bissau will begin their November double-header against Madagascar a day earlier.
The two countries will meet again on Tuesday, November 17, the same day Nigeria face Tanzania in Zanzibar.
With four qualifying matches remaining for each country, the results could reshape the race for the group’s only available qualification place.
The situation is particularly important because Guinea-Bissau have already defeated Nigeria 3-0, giving them an early advantage in the qualification race.
Why Guinea-Bissau lead Nigeria in AFCON 2027 Group L
Guinea-Bissau began their campaign with a 2-0 away victory over Tanzania on September 25.
The West African country then defeated Nigeria 3-0 in their second fixture.
Those results gave Guinea-Bissau six points from two matches, with five goals scored and none conceded.
Nigeria, meanwhile, collected three points from their opening 2-1 victory against Madagascar.
The Super Eagles then suffered their first defeat of the campaign against Guinea-Bissau.
This left Chelle’s side three points behind the group leaders, with a goal difference of minus two compared with Guinea-Bissau’s plus five.
The difference could become important if both countries finish with the same number of points.
However, any tie would have to be resolved under CAF’s applicable qualification regulations rather than by assuming overall goal difference is always the first criterion.
When will Guinea-Bissau face Madagascar?
CAF has scheduled the first encounter between Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau for Thursday, November 12, 2026.
The match is listed for 4pm GMT, equivalent to 5pm Nigerian time.
The return fixture will take place on Tuesday, November 17, when Guinea-Bissau host Madagascar.
That match is scheduled for 4pm GMT, or 5pm Nigerian time.
The timing means Nigeria will have an opportunity to assess the first result before facing Tanzania on Friday.
However, the Super Eagles cannot control the outcome of those matches.
Their primary responsibility remains collecting points from their own fixtures.
The results of the Guinea-Bissau–Madagascar double-header will determine whether Nigeria can close the gap, remain three points behind or fall further adrift.
What if Guinea-Bissau beat Madagascar twice?
If Guinea-Bissau win both November fixtures, they will move from six points to 12.
That would leave them with two matches remaining and a maximum possible final total of 18 points.
If Nigeria also defeat Tanzania twice, the Super Eagles will reach nine points.
Guinea-Bissau would therefore maintain a three-point lead before March.
The situation would become more difficult if Nigeria drop points against Tanzania.
For example, if Nigeria collect four points from the two matches, they will have seven points after November.
They would then trail Guinea-Bissau by five points if the leaders win twice.
The Super Eagles could still recover mathematically, but their options would be more limited.
What if Madagascar beat Guinea-Bissau?
A Madagascar victory over Guinea-Bissau would prevent the current leaders from collecting maximum points.
This could give Nigeria an opportunity to reduce the gap if they defeat Tanzania.
For example, if Guinea-Bissau lose both matches against Madagascar, they will remain on six points.
Nigeria could then move to nine points with two victories over Tanzania.
However, such an outcome would also bring Madagascar into the qualification race.
Madagascar currently have one point and could reach seven by winning both games against Guinea-Bissau.
This means Nigeria cannot simply hope for Guinea-Bissau to lose without considering the implications for Madagascar.
The qualification race involves three non-host countries competing for one place.
What if Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar draw?
Draws between Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar would also affect the group standings.
If both matches end in draws, Guinea-Bissau will move from six points to eight.
Madagascar will increase their total from one point to three.
Nigeria could then move to nine points by defeating Tanzania twice.
That would put the Super Eagles ahead of Guinea-Bissau on points after November.
However, the final two matches in March would still determine qualification.
A draw between the rivals is therefore one possible result that could help Nigeria close the gap without significantly increasing Madagascar’s points total.
Why Nigeria’s final match against Guinea-Bissau matters
Nigeria will host Guinea-Bissau during the final qualifying window in March 2027.
The encounter could become particularly significant if both countries remain close in the standings.
The Super Eagles will also travel to Madagascar during the same window.
Consequently, Nigeria’s remaining fixtures include direct encounters with both non-host rivals.
This gives Chelle’s team opportunities to influence the qualification race through their own results.
However, those opportunities will become less valuable if Nigeria drop too many points during the November matches against Tanzania.
According to CAF’s November qualification preview, Group L remains open, with Guinea-Bissau leading Nigeria before the latest round.
For Nigerian supporters, the most important lesson is that every point dropped by Guinea-Bissau could create an opening for the Super Eagles, but Madagascar’s results must also be considered.