Trump approval rating by State: New map reveals where Donald Trump is winning and losing ahead of 2026 Midterms
Trump reignited debate over a possible third term after wearing a “Trump 2028” hat during the White House Correspondents’ Dinner while insisting he was joking, Image Source: SMH
With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections less than three months away, Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater in most states, according to a new state-by-state analysis of Civiqs polling.
The figures show a sharply divided political landscape. Trump retains positive approval in several reliably Republican states, but his numbers have deteriorated even in some areas that previously gave him strong marks. His standing is particularly significant in the seven battleground states he won in the 2024 presidential election, where his net approval is now negative across the board.
Nationally, 35 percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance, while 59 percent disapprove, according to the Civiqs rolling online tracking poll cited in the analysis. That produces a net approval rating of -24 percentage points as of August 19.
Trump Approval Rating Falls Underwater in Most States
The latest polling paints a challenging picture for the president as Republicans prepare to defend their congressional majorities.
Trump’s approval remains strongest in several deeply Republican states, but the overall state-by-state map shows far more negative than positive ratings. The shift is notable because some states that previously recorded positive approval during Trump’s second term have now moved into negative territory.
Indiana is one example. Trump’s net approval rating there stood at -3 in the latest figures after remaining positive earlier in his second term.
Mississippi has also moved into negative territory, with the state’s net approval rating having fallen below zero since May.
The changes suggest that Trump’s approval ratings are not static, even in states where Republicans have traditionally enjoyed strong support.
Wyoming Has Trump’s Highest Approval Rating
Wyoming currently records Trump’s strongest net approval rating, according to the Civiqs figures.
The president has a +22 net approval rating in the state, with 56 percent of voters approving of his performance and 35 percent disapproving.
Other states where Trump maintains positive net approval include North Dakota, West Virginia, South Dakota, Idaho, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alabama and Montana.
North Dakota gives Trump a +18 net approval rating, while West Virginia records +13. South Dakota and Idaho are both at +9, followed by Arkansas at +8, Oklahoma at +7, Alabama at +6 and Montana at +4.
Even these strongest states have experienced declines compared with the beginning of Trump’s second term.
In Wyoming, for instance, Trump began his second presidency with a net approval rating of +46, meaning the latest figure represents a substantial decline.
Hawaii Has Trump’s Lowest Approval Rating
Trump’s weakest approval rating is in Hawaii, where only 18 percent approve of his job performance and 78 percent disapprove.
That produces a net approval rating of -60, the lowest among the states included in the analysis.
Vermont follows with a net approval rating of -54, while Maryland stands at -52. Massachusetts records -48, California and Washington are both at -43, Connecticut is at -41, Oregon is at -40 and New York is at -39.
The weakest ratings are concentrated largely in states that have traditionally leaned Democratic in presidential elections.
Trump Is Underwater in All Seven 2024 Battleground States
Perhaps the most politically significant part of the state polling is Trump’s performance in the seven battleground states he won in 2024.
His net approval rating is negative in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Arizona currently records Trump’s strongest approval among those seven states, but he remains underwater at -13, with 41 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval.
North Carolina follows at -16, while Wisconsin is at -17.
Pennsylvania records a -19 net approval rating, Nevada stands at -21 and Michigan is at -22.
Georgia has one of the weakest numbers among the seven, with Trump at -23, based on 35 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval.
The figures are important because these states are expected to play a major role in determining the balance of power in Congress.
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Florida Also Shows Negative Trump Approval Rating
Florida, which has shifted considerably toward Republicans in recent presidential elections, also records a negative rating for Trump.
The president has a -11 net approval rating in the state, with 42 percent approving of his job performance and 53 percent disapproving.
Florida’s numbers demonstrate that Trump’s challenges are not limited to traditional Democratic strongholds or the most competitive swing states.
The state has become a major Republican stronghold in recent elections, making the negative approval figure notable in the wider national picture.
What Trump’s Approval Ratings Could Mean for the 2026 Midterms
Presidential approval ratings could become an important factor in the 2026 midterm elections, particularly if Trump’s negative numbers remain in place through November.
Political scientist Costas Panagopoulos of Northeastern University told Newsweek that presidential approval ratings are a reliable predictor of midterm outcomes and argued that Trump’s net disapproval could affect Republican candidates.
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, described the polling map as difficult for the president while noting that other factors, including the Democratic Party’s own approval ratings and the partisan makeup of individual states and districts, will influence the outcome.
Historically, the president’s party tends to lose congressional seats during midterm elections. That makes Trump’s approval ratings particularly relevant as Republicans attempt to protect their majorities in the House and Senate.
White House Pushes Back Against Low Approval Numbers
The White House has rejected the idea that Trump’s polling numbers undermine his political mandate.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle previously pointed to Trump’s nearly 80 million votes in the 2024 presidential election, arguing that the result gave the president a mandate to pursue his agenda.
The administration has also highlighted what it describes as progress on jobs, inflation, housing affordability and other domestic priorities.
The competing narratives set up a potentially important political test for the months ahead: whether Trump’s negative approval ratings translate into losses for Republican candidates or whether party loyalty, the strength of individual candidates and dissatisfaction with Democrats offset the president’s weak numbers.
Trump Approval Rating Map Could Signal a Competitive Midterm Election
The August polling offers a snapshot of Trump’s political standing heading toward the midterms, but approval ratings can change before voters cast their ballots.
The most significant warning signs are the president’s negative ratings across all seven 2024 battleground states, alongside declining approval in some traditionally Republican states.
At the same time, Trump continues to hold positive ratings in several Republican strongholds, while the Democratic Party also faces its own challenges with public approval.
With control of Congress at stake, the coming months will determine whether the current polling represents a temporary decline or a broader shift in Trump’s political standing.
FAQ
What is Donald Trump’s approval rating in August 2026?
According to the Civiqs rolling online tracking poll cited in the August 20 analysis, 35 percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance and 59 percent disapprove as of August 19, 2026. His national net approval rating is therefore -24 percentage points.
Which state has the highest approval rating for Donald Trump?
Wyoming has the highest net approval rating for Trump in the latest Civiqs figures. His net approval is +22, with 56 percent approving and 35 percent disapproving.
Which state has the lowest approval rating for Donald Trump?
Hawaii has the lowest net approval rating. Trump has 18 percent approval and 78 percent disapproval, producing a net approval rating of -60.
What is Trump’s approval rating in the battleground states?
Trump is underwater in all seven battleground states he won in the 2024 presidential election. The latest net approval figures are Arizona -13, Georgia -23, Michigan -22, Nevada -21, North Carolina -16, Pennsylvania -19 and Wisconsin -17.
What is Trump’s approval rating in Georgia?
Trump’s net approval rating in Georgia is -23, with 35 percent approving of his job performance and 58 percent disapproving, according to the cited Civiqs figures.
What is Trump’s approval rating in Pennsylvania?
Trump’s net approval rating in Pennsylvania is -19. The figures show 37 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval.
What is Trump’s approval rating in Michigan?
Trump has a -22 net approval rating in Michigan, with 36 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving.
What is Trump’s approval rating in Wisconsin?
Trump’s net approval rating in Wisconsin is -17, with 39 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving.
What is Trump’s approval rating in Arizona?
Trump’s net approval rating in Arizona is -13, based on 41 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval.
What is Trump’s approval rating in Nevada?
Trump has a -21 net approval rating in Nevada, with 36 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving.
What is Trump’s approval rating in North Carolina?
Trump’s net approval rating in North Carolina is -16, with 39 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving.
What is Trump’s approval rating in Florida?
Trump’s net approval rating in Florida is -11, with 42 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving.
Is Trump’s approval rating falling in Republican states?
The latest figures indicate that Trump’s approval has declined from the beginning of his second term, including in some Republican-leaning states. Indiana has moved to -3, while Mississippi has also entered negative territory.
What does Trump’s approval rating mean for the 2026 midterms?
A weak presidential approval rating can create difficulties for the president’s party during midterm elections. Political analysts cited in the report said Trump’s negative ratings could weigh on Republican candidates, though factors such as local races, partisan voting patterns and Democratic approval ratings will also matter.
Could Trump’s approval rating cause Republicans to lose Congress?
The polling creates a potential challenge for Republicans, but approval ratings alone cannot determine the election result. Republicans’ chances will also depend on individual candidates, turnout, district composition, campaign issues and the performance of Democratic candidates.
Is Donald Trump still popular in Republican states?
Trump remains popular in several Republican strongholds, particularly Wyoming, North Dakota, West Virginia, South Dakota, Idaho, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alabama and Montana. However, his approval has declined from earlier levels in several of these states.
Why are Trump’s approval ratings important before the midterm elections?
The president’s approval rating can influence how voters evaluate members of the president’s party. With control of the House and Senate at stake, Trump’s standing could affect Republican candidates, particularly in competitive states and districts.
What is net approval rating?
Net approval is calculated by subtracting the percentage of voters who disapprove from the percentage who approve. A positive number means approval is higher than disapproval, while a negative number means more voters disapprove than approve.
Does Trump’s approval rating guarantee the outcome of the midterms?
No. Approval ratings are an important political indicator but do not guarantee election results. Voter turnout, economic conditions, candidates, local issues, party identification and the political environment can all influence midterm outcomes.
Where is Donald Trump most unpopular?
Based on the cited Civiqs state figures, Trump’s lowest net approval ratings are in Hawaii (-60), Vermont (-54), Maryland (-52), Massachusetts (-48), California (-43), Washington (-43), Connecticut (-41), Oregon (-40) and New York (-39).
Where is Donald Trump most popular?
Wyoming currently has Trump’s highest net approval at +22, followed by North Dakota at +18, West Virginia at +13, South Dakota and Idaho at +9, Arkansas at +8, Oklahoma at +7, Alabama at +6 and Montana at +4.
How reliable is the Civiqs Trump approval poll?
The figures cited come from Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of registered voters. The analysis says the survey had received 124,759 responses since January 20, 2025. As with any poll, the results represent a snapshot of public opinion and can change over time.
Will Trump’s approval rating change before the 2026 election?
It could. Approval ratings can move in response to economic conditions, major events, policy decisions, international developments, campaign activity and other factors. The August figures should be viewed as a snapshot rather than a prediction of the final election result.