Chelsea vs Liverpool: Premier League match preview, prediction

Liverpool’s forward, Luis Diaz with a tackle against Chelsea’s defender, Axel Disasi in 2023/24 EPL match. Photo Credit- NBC sports/YouTube

Stamford Bridge will be the venue for a Premier League showdown as fifth-placed Chelsea host newly crowned champions Liverpool on Sunday, May 4, at 4:30 PM (GMT). Enzo Maresca’s Blues, chasing Champions League qualification, face Arne Slot’s relentless Reds, who clinched their 20th English top-flight title with a 5-1 thrashing of Tottenham last weekend. With Chelsea tightening up defensively and Liverpool scoring in 30 straight league games, this piece is set to analyze both teams’ form, tactics, team news, head-to-head record, and predict the scorelines.

Chelsea’s performances

Chelsea, fifth in the Premier League with 60 points from 34 matches, are in the tight race for a top-five finish, which could secure Champions League football given England’s strong UEFA coefficient. Their 1-0 win over Everton on April 26, courtesy of Nicolas Jackson’s first league goal in four months, and a 4-1 Conference League semi-final rout of Djurgarden on May 1 showcase momentum. Chelsea have earned 17 points from their last eight league games, a good improvement from nine points in their prior 10 games. Their 1.59 goals per game and 1.15 xGA shows a strong defense, conceding eight goals in their last eight matches across all competitions. However, a 2-1 loss to Newcastle in April exposed vulnerabilities against quick transitions.

Chelsea’s tactics

Enzo Maresca’s 4-2-3-1 emphasizes midfield control and wing play, with a 4-4-2 press out of possession. Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia form a robust defensive midfield, freeing Cole Palmer to create. Pedro Neto and Noni Madueke exploit flanks, while Jackson leads the line, though his inconsistency remains a concern. Levi Colwill and Tosin Adarabioyo anchor a youthful defense. Chelsea’s set-piece defending faces a crucial test against Liverpool’s aerial threat. Maresca’s likely midfield changes, dropping Enzo Fernandez for Lavia, aim to counter Liverpool’s press.

Chelsea team news and injuries

Chelsea faces a big injury crisis as goalkeeper Roberto Sanchez, Marc Guiu, and Wesley Fofana are ruled out due to injuries, thereby reducing options for Maresca. Mykhailo Mudryk faces a doping ban, pending investigation, and is unavailable. No new injuries are reported, but Lavia’s fitness is key, with fans on social media noting his importance. No suspensions loom, and Colwill’s return strengthens the backline.

Liverpool’s performances

Liverpool, champions with 82 points from 34 matches, are a relentless force. Their 5-1 demolition of Tottenham on April 27 with goals from Luis Diaz, Alexis Mac Allister, Cody Gakpo, Mohamed Salah, and Diogo Jota sealed their second Premier League title, equaling Manchester United’s 20 top-flight trophies. Scoring in 30 straight Premier League matches, Liverpool’s 2.41 goals per game and 1.2 xG per game are unmatched. A 2-1 win over Chelsea in October and a 1-0 victory at Leicester on April 20, via Trent Alexander-Arnold’s late strike, underline their clutch mentality. However, their title celebrations could risk a “hangover,” with Chelsea favored to win.

Liverpool’s tactics

Arne Slot’s 4-2-3-1 combines high pressing with quick transitions. Mohamed Salah (20 goals, 13 assists), chasing Alan Shearer’s 47-goal-involvement record, is the focal point, with 8 goals in 12 games against Chelsea. Curtis Jones and Ryan Gravenberch anchor midfield, while Diaz and Jota exploit flanks. Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate form a rock-solid defense, conceding 0.85 goals per game, with Alisson to man the post. Liverpool’s set-piece dominance could target Chelsea’s defense. Slot’s rotations potentially starting Harvey Elliott or Federico Chiesa shows confidence.

Liverpool team news and injuries

The Reds are in a good place injury-wise. Only Joe Gomez has been ruled out for this fixture. No new injuries are reported, with Salah, Van Dijk, and Alisson confirmed starters. No suspensions loom, and Slot’s full squad allows flexibility, though Chiesa or Elliott may feature for to make the squad flexible.

Chelsea vs Liverpool head-to-head statistics

Based on BBC Sport and Flashscore, the last 10 competitive meetings show Liverpool’s dominance with Liverpool securing four wins, Chelsea with zero wins, and 6 draws between them. Liverpool have scored 14 goals, while Chelsea hold 7. Chelsea are winless in their last 10 against Liverpool. Liverpool’s 2-1 win in October 2024 marked their first league double over Chelsea since 2019/20. Seven of 10 games saw under 2.5 goals, averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction

Chelsea enter with momentum, their 17 points from eight games and 4-1 Djurgarden win signaling intent. Their youthful squad and tightened defense pose a threat, with Caicedo and Lavia’s physicality countering Liverpool’s press. However, their winless streak against the Reds and Jackson’s inconsistency are dangers. Liverpool, with the title secured, are a formidable side. Their 30-game scoring streak, Salah’s form overwhelms most defenses. Slot’s attacking style and Van Dijk’s solidity make them favorites, but a potential title hangover and Chelsea’s 43.3% win probability suggest vulnerability. Liverpool’s five away losses in their last eight against top-six sides are a concern.

Predicted Scoreline: Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool. Liverpool’s press and Salah’s ruthlessness exploit Chelsea’s defensive weaknesses. Palmer creates a Jackson goal, but Van Dijk’s defending and Alisson’s saves (0.9 xGA faced per game) secure a narrow win. Salah’s record against Chelsea could be an advantage for the Reds. However, an alternative result could end in a 2-all draw.