Can opposition coalition stop APC in 2027 general elections?

2023 Labour Party presidential candidate and 2023 Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate. Photo Credit- Vanguard

As Nigeria’s political landscape heats up ahead of the 2027 general elections, the All Progressives Congress (APC) stands as a formidable giant, having dominated the presidency and National Assembly since 2015. Under President Bola Tinubu, the APC’s grip on power, enhanced by strategic coalitions, defections, and an ability for navigating Nigeria’s complex ethnic and regional dynamic, seems unshakable. However, a rising opposition coalition, led by heavyweights like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and ex-Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai, aims to challenge this dominance by uniting under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) platform. While this coalition signals a bold attempt to unseat the APC, its success is far from victory. This piece is set to argue that ongoing party coalitions face insurmountable hurdles of internal divisions, a lack of ideological coherence, and the APC’s mastery of political strategy, making it impossible to stop Tinubu’s re-election bid, despite their potential to reshape Nigeria’s political discourse.

The APC’s dominance

Since its formation in 2013 through a merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and factions of other parties, the APC has rewritten Nigeria’s political script. Its 2015 victory, with Muhammadu Buhari ousting PDP incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, marked the first peaceful power transfer between parties in Nigeria’s history. The APC’s subsequent wins in 2019 and 2023, with Tinubu securing 37% of the vote against 17 candidates, cemented its legislative majorities, holding the most seats in both chambers of the National Assembly.

Even in 2025, despite economic challenges and public discontent over inflation and insecurity, the APC’s political machine remains strong, fueled by defections from opposition parties and Tinubu’s coalition-building skills.APC National Secretary Ajibola Basiru calls Tinubu the “grandmaster of coalitions,” citing his role in the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), which ousted military rule in the 1990s. This expertise has kept the APC ahead, absorbing defectors like five PDP governors in 2013 and maintaining a broad ethnic base across Yoruba-dominated Southwest and Hausa-Fulani North. The party’s digital membership drive, launched in February 2025, aims to modernize operations and counter opposition narratives. The APC’s ability to exploit opposition fragmentation as seen in PDP’s 2018 Senate and House majority losses, gives it a structural edge.

How strong is the opposition coalition

The opposition’s response is a coalition under the ADC, agreed upon in a May 2025 Abuja meeting involving Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, and others. This alliance seeks to consolidate the PDP, Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and disaffected APC members into a formidable political force, Atiku’s call for a united front, echoed by Obi and political economist Pat Utomi, emphasizes setting aside personal ambitions to challenge Tinubu’s re-election. The coalition’s adoption of the ADC, a minor party with no prior presidential win, aims to bypass internal PDP and LP disputes. El-Rufai’s involvement, despite his APC roots, signals potential defections, with his quip about Tinubu “returning to Lagos in 2027” showing ambition.

In theory, this coalition has potential. The 2023 election showed opposition strength, with Atiku (PDP) and Obi (LP) splitting 60% of the vote (Atiku 29%, Obi 25%) against Tinubu’s 37%. Had they united, they might have won, as Obi’s “Obidient” millennial base and Atiku’s northern strongholds complement each other. The coalition’s focus on youth discontent, as seen in the 2020 #EndSARS protests and economic grievances like hyper-inflation could resonate.

Regardless, cracks are already visible. PDP senators and governors, crucial to mobilizing resources, rejected Atiku’s “individualistic” coalition plan in May 2025, demanding party-driven alliances. The NNPP and LP have distanced themselves from mere talks, with spokespersons denying involvement. Atiku’s history of party-hopping, APC in 2014, PDP in 2019, now ADC, could limit Nigerians’ trust. The coalition’s silence on leadership, is similar to failed coalition’s collapse in the past.

Ideological and ethnic differences

Nigeria’s political parties lack clear ideologies, a structural flaw that could limit the coalition’s influence. The APC, PDP, and LP share vague promises of economic growth and anti-corruption, with politicians like Atiku and Kwankwaso switching parties for personal gain. Without a unifying ideology, the coalition risks becoming a self-serving project driven by inordinate ambition.

Ethnic politics further complicates matters. The APC’s Yoruba and Hausa-Fulani base gives it a demographic advantage. Atiku’s northern Fulani roots and Obi’s Igbo-backed LP appeal to distinct regions, but their coalition must bridge Nigeria’s ethno-religious divide, a feat the 2013 APC coalition achieved. El-Rufai’s defection hints at northern unrest, but his polarizing tenure as Kaduna governor may not sway southern voters. The coalition’s reliance on personality over policy, as seen in Obi’s 2023 surge, mirrors Buhari’s 2011 CPC run but lacks the APC’s organizational depth

The APC’s counter-strategy

The APC is not sitting idle. APC’s dismissal of the coalition as “lies” and their call for opposition leaders to “return to their parties” aim to plant disunity. The APC’s history of absorbing defectors—five PDP governors in 2013, suggests it could lure coalition figures like El-Rufai back, especially with ministerial posts or governorships. Tinubu’s infrastructure projects, like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, and economic reforms, despite short-term pain, may sway voters by 2027.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), criticized for 2023 irregularities, remains a wildcard. The APC’s influence over INEC, as alleged by Atiku, could provide an advantage for APC. The coalition’s lack of a grassroots structure, unlike the APC’s 774 Local Government Area presence, limits its mobilization. The ADC’s obscurity with zero governorships or federal seats, further limits credibility.

Counterarguments: Coalition’s potential

Optimists argue the coalition could succeed if it unifies. Obi’s 2023 performance (25% of votes) and Atiku’s 29% suggest a combined over 50% share, enough to defeat Tinubu’s 37%. Obi’s camp filled with educated young Nigerians and individuals unwilling to accept voting incentives. Economic woes, with rising unemployment and hyper-inflation, promote anti-APC sentiment. A transparent INEC, pressured by international observers, could level the playing field. If the coalition selects a consensus candidate like Obi, with Atiku as a northern running mate, it could bridge regional divides.

However, these hopes hinge on unproven unity. PDP senators’ rejection of Atiku’s plan and LP’s denial of coalition talks, signal fractures and lack of trust. Obi’s youth appeal may not sway rural voters, who favor APC’s patronage networks. Tinubu’s coalition mastery, as political analysts notes, neutralizes opposition alliances,

Final take

The opposition coalition under the ADC is a bold step to end the APC’s reign, but its chances of stopping Tinubu in 2027 are slim. Internal divisions, with PDP and LP leaders resisting Atiku’s vision, is just another example of past coalition failures. The lack of ideological clarity and reliance on personalities like Obi and El-Rufai weaken its appeal. Meanwhile, the APC’s ethnic reach, defection strategy, and Tinubu’s coalition expertise since NADECO make him a political giant. The coalition may galvanize youth and urban voters, but without grassroots structures, a unified candidate, or INEC reform, it’s a David facing a Goliath with a proven slingshot. As political analysts highlights that it is another plan doomed to fail. For now, the APC’s shadow looms large, and 2027 looks like Tinubu’s to lose.