Barcelona vs Real Madrid: La Liga El Clasico preview, prediction

The Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys in Barcelona is set to host the final El Clasico of the 2024/25 La Liga season on Sunday, May 11, at 3:15 PM (GMT), a match that could decide the Spanish title. Hansi Flick’s Barcelona, leading the table with 71 points, hold a four-point advantage over Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid (67 points) with four games left. With Barcelona chasing their 28th La Liga crown and Madrid desperate to avoid a trophyless season, this clash carries a synonymous stake. This piece is set to explore and analyze both teams’ performances, tactics, team news, head-to-head statistics, and predict the scorelines.

Barcelona’s performance

Barcelona, atop La Liga with 71 points from 34 matches, are on a scintillating run, losing just twice in 2025 (to Borussia Dortmund and Inter Milan). Their 2-1 win at Real Valladolid on May 3, with goals from Raphinha and Ferran Torres, marked their fourth straight La Liga victory. Despite a 4-3 extra-time Champions League semi-final loss to Inter Milan on May 6 (7-6 aggregate), their 3-2 Copa del Rey final triumph over Real Madrid on April 26 and a 5-2 Spanish Super Cup win in January showcase dominance. Barcelona’s 2.68 goals per game (91 goals in 34 league games) and 1.8 xG per game lead La Liga, though their not-too-sharp set-piece defending remain a concern. A win here could seal the title by May 14 against Espanyol.

Barcelona’s tactics

Hansi Flick’s 4-2-3-1 thrives on a high press and wing dynamism. Lamine Yamal and Raphinha are Ballon d’Or contenders and one of the best attacking duos this season, with Dani Olmo’s key passes creating chances. Ferran Torres who was a replacement for Robert Lewandowski, while in injury will be supported by Pedri and Frenkie de Jong’s midfield control. Pau Cubarsi and Inigo Martinez anchor the defense, but Gerard Martins inexperience at left-back is a weak link. Barcelona’s set-piece threats target Madrid’s depleted backline. Flick’s post-match comment against Inter Milan signals an aggressive approach.

Barcelona’s team news and injuries

Barcelona’s injury list is extensive. Jules Kounde (hamstring, from Inter first leg) is likely out, with Eric Garcia or Ronald Araujo at right-back. Robert Lewandowski is back in squad but Flick could start Torres in attack. Alejandro Balde (hamstring) is a doubt but may feature as a substitute, with Martin starting. Marc-Andre ter Stegen remains unavailable, with Wojciech Szczesny in goal. Marc Casado (knee) and Marc Bernal (ACL) are long-term absentees. No suspensions loom, but Flick may start Gavi for physicality.

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Real Madrid performance

Real Madrid, second with 67 points from 34 matches, are battling to salvage their season after a 4-3 win over Valencia on May 3. Their record between February and April reflects inconsistency, with a 5-2 Spanish Super Cup loss and 3-2 Copa del Rey final defeat to Barcelona defining their campaign. In the Champions League, a 5-1 aggregate quarter-final exit to Arsenal ended their European hopes. Madrid’s 2.03 goals per game and 1.6 xG are potent, but their set pieces defense expose a crack that could be exploited by Barcelona. A win is crucial to close the four-point gap.

Real Madrid tactics

Carlo Ancelotti’s 4-3-3 (or 4-4-2) prioritizes counterattacks, with Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe leading the charge. Federico Valverde and Jude Bellingham drive midfield, while Aurelien Tchouameni stays ahead of the defense. With only Raul Asencio as a fit centre-back, Lucas Vazquez and Fran Garcia handle the flank in a makeshift defense. Madrid’s high press could disrupt Barcelona’s build-up, but their injury-ravaged backline struggles against Barcelona’s attacking threats. Ancelotti’s potential farewell, adds emotional weight.

Real Madrid team news and injuries

Real Madrid are not left out of the injury crisis as the Los Blancos’ defense is decimated. Antonio Rudiger (knee), David Alaba (knee), Eder Militao (ACL), and Dani Carvajal (ACL) are out for the season, leaving Asencio as the sole centre-back. Eduardo Camavinga (tendon) is sidelined, with Tchouameni in midfield. Ferland Mendy (hamstring) is out for another week, with Garcia at left-back. No serious suspensions apply, and Mbappé is fully fit to start. Ancelotti may use a 4-5-1 for stability

Barcelona vs Real Madrid head-to-head statistics

Based on UEFA.com, Barcelona dominate recent Clasicos, with the Blaugranas securing 7 wins, while the Los Blancos with 3 wins, and no draws. Barcelona in the last ten El Clasicos have scored 26 goals while Real Madrid 17. Barcelona have won all three Clasicos this season, the first since 2018/19. Madrid’s last La Liga win at Barcelona was in 2020. Seven of 10 games saw over 2.5 goals, averaging 4.3 goals per game. Barcelona’s 4-0 Bernabeu rout in October 2024 is an example.

Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions

Barcelona are cleared favourites in this fixture. Their Clasico record this season, 91 goals (22 more than Madrid), and form in 2025 make them formidable. Flick’s high pressing and Yamal’s runs, could exploit Madrid’s makeshift defense. However, the Inter loss and injuries could reduce morale and motivation.

Madrid’s comeback spirit at Valencia and Bilbao keeps them dangerous, with Vinicius and Mbappe’s combo. Ancelotti’s counterattacks could target the inexperienced options in Barcelona’s defense. However, their injury crisis and poor set-piece defending are crippling. Ancelotti’s potential exit, adds pressure.

Predicted Scoreline: Barcelona 3-1 Real Madrid. Barcelona’s press and Raphinha’s flair overwhelm Madrid’s depleted backline. However, an alternative result. Barcelona 4-2 Real Madrid.