Athletic Bilbao vs Man United: UEL semi-final preview, predictions

Athletic Bilbao forward, Nico Williams in celebration after scoring a goal. Photo Credit- Man United news

The iconic San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao will be ready for a clash as Athletic Bilbao host Manchester United in the first leg of the UEFA Europa League semi-final on Thursday, May 1, at 8:00 PM (GMT). Ruben Amorim’s Red Devils, unbeaten in Europe and riding the high of a historic 7-6 aggregate comeback against Lyon, face Ernesto Valverde’s Basque giants, who are chasing a dream final at their home stadium. With United’s Premier League campaign already destroyed (14th, 39 points from 34 games) and Bilbao thriving in La Liga’s top four, this fixture is a tale of redemption versus ambition. This piece is set to explore and analyze both club’s form, tactics, team news, head-to-head record, and predict the scorelines.

Athletic Bilbao performances

Athletic Bilbao, fourth in La Liga with 58 points from 33 matches (W16 D10 L7, GF 52 GA 31), are in strong form, virtually assured of Champions League qualification. Their 1-0 win over Las Palmas on April 23, sealed by Inaki Williams’ strike, extended an unbeaten run to seven La Liga games (W4 D3 L0). In the Europa League, Bilbao’s impressive league phase record saw them defeat Roma (4-3 aggregate) and Rangers (2-0 aggregate) in the knockouts. Their 1.58 goals per game and 1.1 xGA show attacking potency and defensive resilience, though a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid on April 20 exposed set-piece vulnerabilities. Bilbao’s incentive is great: the Europa League final is at San Mamés on May 21.

Athletic Bilbao tactics

Ernesto Valverde’s 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 combines physicality with flair, leveraging high press and wing play. Gorka Guruzeta leads the line, supported by Nico Williams’ pace and Alvaro Djalo’s creativity. Without Oihan Sancet, Ander Herrera anchors midfield alongside Mikel Jauregizar, while Inaki Williams’ versatility stretches defenses. Aritz Aduriz’s legacy inspires a robust backline of Dani Vivian and Yeray Alvarez. Bilbao’s set-piece prowess could target United’s depleted defense. Valverde’s confidence signals an aggressive approach to exploit United’s injury crisis.

Athletic Bilbao team news and injuries

Bilbao face a major blow with top scorer Oihan Sancet (17 goals, 3 assists) doubtful for both legs due to a muscular injury sustained against Las Palmas. Ernesto Valverde called it “something muscular” but awaits tests. Nico Williams (calf) is fit after returning off the bench in the match against Las Palmas, a huge boost, though his minutes may be managed. Yuri Berchiche (calf) is expected to return, bolstering the left-back role. No suspensions loom, and Vivian, Alvarez, and Aitor Paredes are fit.

Manchester United performances

Manchester United, 14th in the Premier League with 39 points from 34 matches (W8 D10 L16, GF 39 GA 52), are enduring their worst-ever league season. A 1-1 draw at Bournemouth on April 27, salvaged by Rasmus Hojlund’s stoppage-time goal, offered little hope, with only 1.2 xG from 14 shots. Yet, in the Europa League, United are unbeaten in their last eight matches (W6 D2 L0), topping the league phase and staging a 5-4 extra-time miracle against Lyon, capped by Harry Maguire’s 121st-minute winner. Wins over Real Sociedad (5-2 aggregate) showcase resilience, with 1.88 goals per game and 1.4 xG. Their 1.5 xGA per game, however, highlights defensive weakness, worsened by injuries. Winning the Europa League is United’s only path to Champions League football.

Man United tactics

Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 emphasizes wing-back width and counterattacks, with a 4-4-2 press and 5-4-1 low block out of possession. Bruno Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho are key ball-carriers, supporting Hojlund. Without Diogo Dalot, Noussair Mazraoui shifts to right wing-back, with Patrick Dorgu on the left. Casemiro and Manuel Ugarte form a pivot, but injuries force Mazraoui into the back three with Maguire and Lenny Yoro. United’s set-piece defending is a glaring weakness Bilbao could exploit. Amorim’s rotations against Bournemouth prioritized Bilbao, but their 0-1 loss to Wolves showed weak attack.

Man United team news and injuries

United’s injury crisis is dire. Lisandro Martinez (ACL) and Joshua Zirkzee (hamstring) are out for the season. Diogo Dalot (calf) is sidelined for weeks, forcing Mazraoui to right wing-back. Matthijs de Ligt (ankle) and Amad Diallo (ankle) are back in training and could feature, with Diallo’s 9 goals and 8 assists before injury a potential spark. Ayden Heaven (knee) is unlikely to play. No suspensions apply, but Amorim may rush De Ligt and Diallo.

Bilbao vs United head-to-head statistics

Based on UEFA.com and Flashscore, the last 10 competitive meetings show a tight rivalry, with Athletic Bilbao securing just 5 wins, Man United having only 2 wins, and 3 draws. A staggering goal record has come in this fixture with Athletic Bilbao having 19, while Man United 15. Bilbao dominated the 2012 Europa League last-16 tie (5-3 aggregate), with Fernando Llorente’s aerial threat decisive. United’s 6-5 aggregate win in the 1956/57 European Cup quarter-finals was their only competitive triumph. Six of 10 games saw over 2.5 goals, averaging 3.4 goals per game. No competitive meetings since 2012 make this a fresh battle.

Bilbao vs United prediction

Bilbao are slight favorites as United are not much of a threat due to their 16 league losses. Bilbao’s 6-1-1 Europa League record, fourth-placed La Liga form, and home fortress (12W-2D-2L at San Mamés) give them an edge. Their high press and set-piece threat could exploit United’s shaky defense. Nico Williams’ return and Guruzeta’s form bolster their attack, but Sancet’s absence reduced their creativity.

United’s unbeaten Europa League run and Lyon heroics show grit, with Fernandes and Garnacho’s ball-carrying key to counters. However, their injury crisis; Martinez, Zirkzee, Dalot, Heaven leaves a makeshift backline vulnerable to Bilbao’s wingers. Amorim’s rotations in previous fixtures preserved energy, but there still exists attacking woes. Diallo’s possible return could add spark, but rushing him could be a risk.

Predicted Scoreline: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Manchester United. Bilbao’s press and Williams’ pace overwhelm United’s depleted defense, Andre Onana’s saves (0.9 xGA faced per game) keep it close, but Bilbao’s home edge prevails. However, an alternative result could end in a 2-2 draw.