Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli: Saudi Super Cup Final 2025 match preview, H2H, prediction
Al-Ahli forward, Riyad Mahrez (left) and Al-Nassr forward (right). Photo Credit- Khel Now
The 2025 Saudi Super Cup final, set for August 23, 2025, at Hong Kong Stadium, pits Al-Nassr against Al-Ahli in a high-stakes clash for the first silverware of the Saudi football season. With Al-Nassr chasing their first major trophy since 2023 and Al-Ahli aiming to build on their recent AFC Champions League success, this final promises a thrilling encounter between two Saudi Pro League powerhouses. This piece is set to preview both teams stack up and predict the likely outcome.
Al-Nassr recent performances
Al-Nassr enter the final in fine form, having secured a hard-fought 2-1 victory over defending Saudi Pro League champions Al-Ittihad in the semi-final on August 19, 2025. Despite playing with 10 men after Sadio Mane’s red card, Al-Nassr showcased resilience, with Mané’s early volley and Joao Felix’s second-half brace sealing their place in the final. Under new manager Jorge Jesus, Al-Nassr’s pre-season was impressive, with three wins in four friendlies, including a 4-1 thrashing of Rio Ave, where Cristiano Ronaldo scored a hat-trick, and a 2-1 victory over Toulouse. However, a 3-2 loss to Almería exposed defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in transitions. Al-Nassr’s attack, led by Ronaldo (six goals in three pre-season games) and bolstered by new signings Joao Felix, Kingsley Coman, and Inigo Martinez, has been electric, but their backline, anchored by Martinez and Abdulelah Al-Amri, must tighten up to handle Al-Ahli’s firepower.
Al-Nassr (4-2-3-1) tactical analysis
Under Jorge Jesus, Al-Nassr are likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing quick transitions and width. The absence of Sadio Mane due to suspension is a blow, but Cristiano Ronaldo and Joao Felix will lead the attack, supported by Kingsley Coman on the right and Angelo Gabriel on the left. Marcelo Brozovic and Abdullah Al-Khaibari will anchor the midfield, providing defensive stability and precise passing to exploit Al-Ahli’s high line. Al-Nassr’s high-pressing style, seen in their semi-final, aims to disrupt build-up play, but their 10-man performance against Al-Ittihad suggests they can adapt to a compact, counter-attacking approach if needed. Defensively, Inigo Martinez’s arrival strengthens the backline, but Nawaf Boushal’s overlapping runs could leave gaps if Al-Ahli exploit the flanks.
Al-Ahli team form
Al-Ahli, managed by Matthias Jaissle, stormed into the final with a commanding 5-1 victory over Al-Qadsiah in their semi-final, showcasing their attacking prowess. Riyad Mahrez was the standout, providing two assists, while Ivan Toney and Roberto Firmino contributed goals. Al-Ahli’s pre-season was less consistent, with mixed results, but their AFC Champions League triumph in 2024/25, capped by a 3-1 win over Kawasaki Frontale, highlights their ability to perform in big moments. Recent Saudi Pro League form has been strong, with five consecutive wins, including victories over Al-Ettifaq, Al-Riyadh, and Al-Orubah, though a 2-1 loss to Al-Okhdood exposed occasional lapses in concentration. Al-Ahli’s squad, featuring stars like Mahrez, Firmino, Toney, and Edouard Mendy, blends experience with clinical finishing, but injuries to Alexsander and Abdullah Otayf could strain their midfield depth.
Al-Ahli (4-2-3-1) tactics
Al-Ahli will also likely line up in a 4-2-3-1, with Mahrez, Firmino, and Galeno supporting Toney up top. Jaissle’s side favors a possession-based approach, with Gabri Veiga and Ziyad Aljohani dictating tempo in midfield. Mahrez’s creativity on the right and Galeno’s pace on the left will test Al-Nassr’s fullbacks, while Toney’s physicality and finishing pose a threat in the box. Defensively, Merih Demiral and Franck Kessié provide solidity, but the absence of Yaslam (suspended) and injuries to key midfielders may force Al-Ahli to rely on less experienced players like Ali Al-Julaydan. Al-Ahli’s high defensive line could be vulnerable to Ronaldo’s runs, but Mendy’s shot-stopping (evident in recent clean sheets) will be crucial.
Al Nassr vs Al-Ahli Saudi head-to-head statistics
The head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli is closely contested but favours Al-Nassr in recent years: Since 2005, both clubs have met 52 times, with Al-Ahli winning 20, Al-Nassr winning 18, and 14 draws. Their last five recent meetings: February 13, 2025 (Saudi Pro League): Al-Nassr 3-2 Al-Ahli. September 13, 2024 (Saudi Pro League): Al-Ahli 1-1 Al-Nassr. March 15, 2024 (Saudi Pro League): Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ahli (Ronaldo). September 22, 2023 (Saudi Pro League): Al-Nassr 4-3 Al-Ahli. May 28, 2022 (Saudi Pro League): Al-Ahli 1-1 Al-Nassr.
Al-Nassr are unbeaten in their last seven H2H matches (4 wins, 3 draws). Matches average 2.96 goals, with both teams scoring in 71% of encounters. Al-Nassr have scored 40 goals to Al-Ahli’s 31 in the last 24 meetings.
Al- Nassr vs Al-Ahli Saudi predicted scorelines
Given Al-Nassr’s attacking firepower, unbeaten H2H record, and recent resilience, they enter as favorites, but Al-Ahli’s depth and big-game experience make this a tight contest. Al-Nassr’s high press and Ronaldo’s clinical finishing should test Al-Ahli’s depleted defense, but Mahrez and Toney could capitalize on counter-attacks. Historical trends suggest a high-scoring game, with both teams scoring in most recent encounters.
