AFCON 2025: Morocco vs Nigeria match preview, team news, prediction, betting tips

The Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium in Rabat lights up on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, at 8:00 PM local time (7:00 PM GMT / 8:00 PM WAT) for one of the most anticipated semi-finals in recent Africa Cup of Nations history: hosts Morocco versus Nigeria’s Super Eagles. This blockbuster clash pits the tournament’s most defensively dominant side against its highest-scoring attack, with a place in Sunday’s final on the line. Morocco, unbeaten in 25 matches across all competitions and chasing a first AFCON title since 1976, benefit from ferocious home support and the momentum of a near-perfect run. Nigeria, the only team with a 100% record through five games, arrive as the continent’s most lethal force but face their sternest test yet, especially without injured captain Wilfred Ndidi. A victory for either side would mark a statement: Morocco dreaming of home glory, Nigeria hunting a fourth continental crown and second straight final.

Morocco’s recent performances

Morocco have been the model of consistency and control at AFCON 2025, going unbeaten (W4 D1) and conceding just one goal in five matches, all from open play. Their campaign opened with a 2-0 win over Comoros (Brahim Díaz 55′, Ayoub El Kaabi 74′), followed by a resilient 1-1 draw against Mali, a 3-0 rout of Zambia, and a clinical 2-0 quarter-final victory over Cameroon (Díaz 26′, Ismaël Saibari 74′). Walid Regragui’s side have kept four clean sheets, averaging 62% possession and allowing only 0.7 xGA per game. Díaz has scored in five straight matches, a record-equalling streak and the Atlas Lions are on course to become the first North African host to win the title since Egypt in 2006.

Morocco’s tactics

Morocco’s 4-3-3 under Regragui blends pragmatic defence with incisive counters. They press selectively, win 55% of duels, and rely on set-pieces (five goals, tournament-high) and Brahim Díaz’s movement (five goals in five games). Achraf Hakimi’s overlaps and the midfield trio of El Khannouss, Saibari, and Ounahi control tempo, while El Kaabi’s hold-up play stretches backlines. Expect a compact block early, absorbing Nigeria’s pressure before hitting on the break, Morocco have conceded zero goals from open play.

Morocco’s team news and injuries

Morocco welcome back Achraf Hakimi from suspension and report no new injuries. Azzedine Ounahi remains sidelined long-term, but Brahim Díaz, Ayoub El Kaabi, and the rest are available.

Predicted XI (4-3-3): Bounou; Hakimi, Aguerd, Masina, Mazraoui; El Khannouss, Al Aynaoui, Saibari; Díaz, Ezzalzouli, El Kaabi.

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Nigeria’s recent form

Nigeria, meanwhile, have been the tournament’s most prolific attack, netting 14 goals in five wins (2.8 per game) while conceding four. They opened with a 2-1 win over Tanzania, then produced a statement 3-2 victory over Tunisia before sealing semi-final qualification with a 2-0 quarter-final win over Algeria (Victor Osimhen 47′, Akor Adams 57′). The Super Eagles are the only side with a perfect record, boasting the highest shot volume (21 shots, 10 on target in group stage) and 66% average possession. Eric Chelle’s men have scored in every game, with Osimhen (four goals) and Ademola Lookman (four goals, three assists) combining for two-thirds of their tally.

Nigeria’s tactics

Nigeria deploy a fluid 4-3-3 that thrives on high pressing (1.4 turnovers forced/game) and quick transitions. Ndidi’s absence weakens the shield, so Onyeka or Onyedika will anchor, freeing Iwobi and Lookman to feed Osimhen and Adams. Their 66% possession and wide overloads (Lookman and Simon) exploit flanks, but defensive lapses (conceding in three of five) remain a concern. Chelle may push high to disrupt Morocco’s build-up, targeting Hakimi’s positioning.

Nigeria’s team news and injuries

Nigeria suffer a major blow with captain Wilfred Ndidi injury; Frank Onyeka or Raphael Onyedika likely steps in. No fresh injuries reported; Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman, and Alex Iwobi are all fit and expected to start.

Predicted XI (4-3-3): Nwabali; Osayi-Samuel, Ajayi, Bassey, Onyemaechi; Onyeka, Iwobi, Lookman; Osimhen, Adams.

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Morocco vs Nigeria head-to-head statistics

Morocco hold a slight edge overall (6W-3L-2D in 11 meetings), but AFCON encounters are decisive: all five have produced winners, with Morocco leading 3-2. Key clashes includes: 1976 group stage: Morocco won both (3-1, 2-1) en route to their only title. 1980 semi-final: Nigeria won 1-0 (Owolabi 9′) en route to their first crown. 2000 group: Nigeria won 2-0. 2004 group: Morocco won 1-0 (Hadji 77′). No AFCON meeting since 2004; recent non-AFCON clashes include Morocco’s 4-0 CHAN final win (2018). Average 2.4 goals/match; under 2.5 in 60% of recent games.

Morocco vs Nigeria prediction

Morocco’s home fortress, defensive record (one goal conceded), and set-piece threat give them the edge in normal time, but Nigeria’s attacking firepower (14 goals) forces a draw. Expect a tense, tactical battle, Díaz or El Kaabi scores first, Osimhen or Lookman levels late. Penalties decide it in Morocco’s favor.

Predicted scoreline: Morocco 1-1 Nigeria (Morocco win on penalties).

Betting Tips to use

Draw @ 3.20. Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 – Morocco concede 0.2/game; Nigeria’s games average 3.2 but semis tighten. Both Teams to Score Yes @ 1.85. Brahim Díaz Anytime Scorer @ 2.80 – Five in five; record streak on line. Victor Osimhen Anytime Scorer @ 2.20. Morocco Win on Penalties @ 5.00. Over 8.5 Corners @ 1.90.