2026 W/Cup Qualifier: Lesotho vs Nigeria Group C match preview, prediction

Sports Top Stories
Okezie Omorogie
October 9, 2025
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Nigerian national football team, Super Eagles. Photo Credit- Pulse Sports

The Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane, South Africa, stands in as Lesotho’s “home” ground on Friday, October 10, 2025, at 4:00 PM GMT (5:00 PM CAT), hosting the Crocodiles against Nigeria’s Super Eagles in a make-or-break CAF Group C qualifier. This neutral-venue affair, mandated by FIFA’s ruling on Lesotho’s inadequate facilities, arrives amid Group C’s chaos, where Benin (14 points, GD +4) and South Africa (14, GD +3) lead, Nigeria (11, GD +2) lurk third, Rwanda (11, GD 0) fourth, and Lesotho fifth with 9 (1W-3D-4L, GD -5, boosted by a forfeited 3-0 “win” over South Africa). For Eric Chelle’s Eagles, victory here, paired with a win over Benin on October 14, yields 17 points, potentially topping the group if rivals falter. Lesotho, outsiders eyeing a maiden World Cup, seek an upset to leapfrog Rwanda (6% odds). Coinciding with Benin vs Rwanda and Zimbabwe vs South Africa, this could reshape Africa’s nine direct spots.

Lesotho recent form

Lesotho’s campaign is survival mode. Fifth with 9 points (1W-3D-4L, 4 goals scored at 0.5/game, 9 conceded at 1.1), they’ve drawn three (1-1 vs Rwanda, September 5; 0-0 vs Uganda, March) but lost four straight before the forfeited South Africa “win” (September 5, 0-3 actual score). Coach Leslie Notši’s tenure: One qualifier win (3-1 vs Zimbabwe, November 2023), with a -5 GD and 0.9 xG/game. Recent: 4-0 loss to Benin (September 9), underscoring defensive woes (1.4 xGA/game), though a 1-1 vs Nigeria last year hints at stubbornness.

Lesotho tactics

Notši’s 4-4-2 packs a low block (45% possession), crowding midfield with Jane Thabantso (1.2 interceptions/game) to absorb pressure, countering via Sera Motebang’s pace (0.3 goals/90). Set-pieces fuel 30% goals, but transitions falter (52% duels won). Likuena will frustrate early, aiming for a 0-0 like 2023, but Nigeria’s press could dismantle (Lesotho concedes 1.1/game away).

Lesotho team news and injuries

Lesotho arrive largely intact, per October 3 announcements – no major injuries reported for Notši’s 23-man squad. Captain Sekhoane Moerane anchors goal (85% save rate in qualifiers), with Motlomelo Mkwanazi (1 goal, 1 assist) and Lehlohonolo Fothoane (1 goal) leading attack. Rethabile Rasethuntsa (midfield, 1 goal) and Jane Thabantso (versatile, 1 goal) are fit, bolstering a defense featuring Thabo Matlabe. Goalkeeper Moerane eyes a heroic shift; rotations loom for Rwanda (October 13).

Nigeria’s recent performances

Nigeria’s path has been a grind of squandered promise. Third in Group C with 11 points from eight games (2W-5D-1L, 7 goals scored at 0.9/game, 5 conceded at 0.6), they’ve drawn five, including 1-1s vs Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Rwanda (September 9), yielding a +2 GD and 1.4 xG/game but just 48% conversion. Unbeaten in six (2W-4D), Chelle’s side eked a 2-0 over Rwanda in June but lost 1-0 to Benin (March). Post-AFCON 2023 runners-up form: Three wins in 10 qualifiers, with home draws (0-0 vs Lesotho, November 2023) betraying inefficiency.

Nigeria tactical analysis

Chelle’s 4-3-3 unleashes high pressing (1.2 turnovers forced/game, 58% possession), with Wilfred Ndidi anchoring midfield (2.5 tackles/90) for Ademola Lookman’s creativity (2.1 key passes/game) and Victor Osimhen’s hold-up (0.7 goals/90). Expect wide overloads via Moses Simon to exploit Lesotho’s flanks (conceding 40% goals there), targeting 1.4 xG. At “neutral” Polokwane, Nigeria projects 65% possession, but draws stem from wasteful finishing, efficiency must hit 65% (league avg).

Nigeria team news and injuries

Nigeria’s camp buzzes with tweaks: Cyriel Dessers (hamstring) and Bright Osayi-Samuel (knock) are out, replaced by Uche Christantus (forward) and Zaidu Sanusi (left-back, AFCON 2023 vet). Ola Aina (knock) and Wilfred Ndidi (hamstring doubt) are 50-50, with Alhassan Yusuf and Semi Ajayi returning. Stanley Nwabali starts in net, William Troost-Ekong captains, and Victor Osimhen spearheads alongside Terem Moffi and Olakunle Olusegun. Chelle’s 23-man list (October 3): Focus on depth for Benin’s rematch.

Lesotho vs Nigeria head-to-head statistics

In three meetings, Nigeria lead 2-1-0 (goals 8-3), averaging 1.75/game. Key: 1-1 draw (November 2023 qualifier, Uyo; Mkwanazi equalizer), Nigeria’s 3-0 friendly win (2010), and 2-4 (2019). Unbeaten in last three (1W-2D), Nigeria score 1.3/game vs Lesotho’s 0.5, with under 2.5 goals in 75%.

Lesotho vs Nigeria score prediction

Predicted Score: Lesotho 0-2 Nigeria

Nigeria’s firepower overwhelms Lesotho’s resolve. Osimhen bags a brace (early header, late tap-in), Lookman assists on a counter, a statement rout nets three points, hitting 14 and keeping auto-qualification alive (70% win probability). Crocodiles frustrate but fold, staying winless. Over 2.5 goals (2.10 odds) and Osimhen scorer (1.80) beckon value.

Betting Tips to use: Under 2.5, Nigeria to win, don’t play both teams to score, under 5.5 cards, under 5.5 corners. Victor Osimhen as anytime goalscorer.