2025 Ballon d’Or: Exploring the criteria that crown football’s finest

As the football world turns its gaze toward the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris for the 69th annual Ballon d’Or ceremony on September 22, 2025, the race for the sport’s most coveted individual prize is wide open. For the fourth time in its storied history, the award will honor the best footballer of the 2024-25 season, judged from August 1, 2024, to July 31, 2025, rather than the calendar year. With Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo no longer dominating European football, and 2024 winner Rodri sidelined by a season-ending knee injury, a new generation of stars is poised to claim the Golden Ball. This piece is set to explore the criteria that shape the nominations, spotlighting the speculated frontrunners and their dazzling performances that have set the stage for an unforgettable gala.

What It takes to win the Ballon d’Or

The Ballon d’Or, established in 1956 by France Football, is decided by a jury of journalists from the top 100 FIFA-ranked nations, each casting votes for their top 10 players from a 30-player shortlist. Points are awarded on a sliding scale (15 for first place, down to 1 for tenth), and the player with the most points wins. In case of a tie, the number of first-place votes breaks the deadlock. The three core criteria guiding the selection process are

Individual performances and impressive character

This encompasses a player’s technical skill, goal-scoring prowess, assists, and overall impact on the pitch. Voters also consider leadership, clutch performances, and moments of brilliance that define a player’s character.

Team performances and achievements

Success in domestic leagues, continental competitions like the Champions League, and, in some years, international tournaments heavily influences votes. Collective silverware often amplifies a player’s case.

Class and Fair Play

Voters reward players who embody sportsmanship, humility, and respect, both on and off the field. Red cards, controversies, or unsportsmanlike conduct can detract from a candidate’s chances.

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With no major international tournaments in the 2024/25 season, the focus is squarely on club performances, making this one of the most open races in recent memory. Let’s see the speculated contenders who are lighting up the football world and examine how their statistics and records align with these criteria.The frontrunners: who’s in the running for 2025?

Raphinha (Barcelona, Brazil)

Once on the brink of leaving Barcelona, Raphinha has emerged as a leading candidate under manager Hansi Flick. The Brazilian winger’s 2024/25 season has been nothing short of spectacular, with 35 goals and 23 assists across all competitions, per Goal.com. His pivotal role in Barcelona’s La Liga title defense and their Copa del Rey triumph, where he displayed exemplary sportsmanship by personally greeting Real Madrid players after the final ticks all three criteria. Raphinha’s top-five rankings in La Liga for goals, assists, and key passes showcase his individual brilliance, while his team’s domestic success bolsters his case. Despite Barcelona’s Champions League exit, his consistent flair and leadership make him a favorite.

Ousmane Dembele (Paris Saint-Germain, France)

Dembele has silenced doubters with a career-defining season at PSG, leading them to their first-ever Champions League title and a Ligue 1 crown. His 21 goals and 6 assists in 29 games, coupled with two assists in PSG’s 5-0 Champions League final rout of Inter Milan, have cemented his status as a frontrunner. Dembele’s 97% passing accuracy in the Champions League and his role as joint Ligue 1’s top scorer highlight his individual excellence. PSG’s historic European triumph satisfies the team achievement criterion, and his redemption arc, from being labeled a “glass man” to a clutch performer adds a compelling narrative of character. However, his no-show in the Club World Cup final slightly dents his case, though not enough to derail his candidacy.

Lamine Yamal (Barcelona, Spain)

At just 17, Lamine Yamal is rewriting football history. The La Masia prodigy has recorded 15 goals and 23 assists in the 2024/25 season, earning comparisons to a young Lionel Messi. His stunning goal against Espanyol sealed Barcelona’s La Liga title, and his performances in the Champions League, despite the team’s exit, were electrifying. Yamal’s youth and fearlessness embody the “impressive character” criterion, while his contribution to Barcelona’s domestic treble aligns with team success. If he wins, Yamal would become the youngest Ballon d’Or recipient, surpassing Ronaldo Nazario’s record set at 21. His third-place ranking by some outlets reflects his meteoric rise, though his lack of international success this season (Spain lost the Nations League final) might keep him just shy of the top spot. Still, the Kopa Trophy for the best under-21 player seems a lock.

Mohamed Salah (Liverpool, Egypt)

Salah’s 2024-25 season has been a masterclass, with 28 goals and 18 assists in the Premier League alone, leading Liverpool to their record-equaling 20th top-flight title. His 47 goal contributions set a new single-season record, earning him the Golden Boot and a strong Ballon d’Or case. Salah’s individual brilliance is undeniable, and his leadership in Liverpool’s title charge checks the team achievement box. However, Liverpool’s early Champions League exit and a slight dip in form late in the season could hurt his chances. His class and professionalism, exemplified by his consistent work rate, keep him in the conversation, though he faces stiff competition from players with deeper European runs.

Harry Kane (Bayern Munich, England)

Kane finally broke his trophy drought with Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga title, scoring 41 goals and providing 14 assists across all competitions. His second consecutive season as the Bundesliga’s top scorer underscores his individual prowess, while Bayern’s domestic success strengthens his team-oriented credentials. Kane’s fair play and leadership are unquestioned, but Bayern’s quarterfinal exit in the Club World Cup and lack of Champions League silverware may cap his ceiling. Still, his sheer goal-scoring volume makes him a top contender.

Cole Palmer (Chelsea, England)

Palmer’s meteoric rise culminated in Chelsea’s Club World Cup victory, where he shone in the final against PSG. His 27 goal contributions in the Premier League and standout performances on the global stage have thrust him into the top tier of contenders. Palmer’s individual flair and clutch moments align with the first criterion, while Chelsea’s global triumph ticks the team success box. His youth and composure under pressure add to his appeal, though his relatively lower goal tally compared to Raphinha or Kane might place him just outside the top three.

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The voting process and historical context

The 2025 nominees will be announced on August 7, 2025, with journalists from France Football and L’Équipe curating the shortlist based on performances across the season. The absence of international tournaments like the Euros or World Cup levels the playing field, giving players from less prominent national teams a chance to shine. Historically, the Ballon d’Or has been dominated by Messi (eight wins) and Ronaldo (five wins, 18 nominations), but 2025 promises a fresh face. Rodri’s 2024 win broke the Messi-Ronaldo duopoly, and with his injury ruling him out, the stage is set for a new icon to emerge.

The 2025 Ballon d’Or race is as much about statistics as it is about stories. Raphinha’s journey from nearly quitting football to becoming Barcelona’s linchpin is a tale of resilience. Dembele’s transformation into PSG’s talisman after years of criticism adds drama. Yamal, at 17, represents the fearless future, while Salah and Kane embody veteran excellence seeking long-overdue recognition. The lack of a dominant favorite unlike the Messi-Ronaldo era makes this race thrillingly unpredictable.

Who will win?

Predicting the 2025 Ballon d’Or is no easy task. Raphinha’s staggering numbers and Barcelona’s domestic dominance give him an edge, but Dembele’s Champions League heroics could sway voters prioritizing European glory. Yamal’s youth and brilliance make him a dark horse, while Salah and Kane remain formidable. Ultimately, the winner will likely be the player who best balances individual brilliance with team success, all while capturing the imagination of the football world.As the nominees are revealed in early August and the ceremony approaches, fans can expect debates to intensify. Will Raphinha’s redemption arc culminate in glory? Can Dembele carry PSG’s momentum to the top? Or will Yamal make history as the youngest winner ever? One thing is certain: the 2025 Ballon d’Or will crown a new king, heralding a bold new chapter in football’s greatest individual honor.