World Cup 2026 qualifiers explained: What happens if FIFA deducts South Africa’s points? Can Nigeria still qualify?

Nigeria’s path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup remains uncertain but not impossible. As of September 2025, Nigeria sits third in CAF Group C with 11 points, trailing South Africa, who lead with 17 points, by six points. Benin and Rwanda are tied with Nigeria, each having 11 points, but Nigeria holds a superior goal difference (+2) compared to Benin (0) and Rwanda (0).

Scenario 1: South Africa’s Potential 3-Point Deduction

South Africa faces a potential 3-point deduction for fielding an ineligible player, Teboho Mokoena, in their March 2025 match against Lesotho. Mokoena had accumulated two yellow cards, which should have led to a suspension. If FIFA imposes this penalty, South Africa’s points would drop from 17 to 14, leveling them with Benin and Rwanda. This would significantly alter the group standings, potentially allowing Nigeria to close the gap and improve their qualification prospects.

Scenario 2: Nigeria’s Remaining Fixtures

Nigeria’s remaining matches are crucial. They face Lesotho away and Benin at home. Winning both matches would add 6 points to their total, bringing them to 17 points. If South Africa loses points due to the potential sanction, Nigeria could move into the top two positions in the group, securing a direct qualification spot.

Scenario 3: Best Runners-Up Qualification

If Nigeria does not finish in the top two of their group, they can still qualify as one of the four best third-placed teams across all CAF groups. Currently, the standings for best third-placed teams are:

• Gabon – 19 points

• Madagascar – 16 points

• DR Congo – 16 points

• Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Namibia, Uganda – 15 points

• Benin – 14 points

  
  
  

Nigeria’s qualification as a best third-placed team depends on their performance in the remaining matches and the results of other groups.

Conclusion

Nigeria’s qualification for the 2026 World Cup is still within reach. Key factors include winning their remaining matches, the potential 3-point deduction for South Africa, and the performance of other teams in the best third-placed standings. The upcoming fixtures and FIFA’s decision on South Africa’s potential sanction will be pivotal in determining Nigeria’s fate.

FAQ: Nigeria World Cup 2026 Qualification

1. Can Nigeria still qualify for the 2026 World Cup?
Yes. Nigeria remains in contention for the 2026 FIFA World Cup despite currently sitting third in Group C with 11 points. The Super Eagles can qualify directly by finishing in the top two of the group or secure a spot through the four best runners-up across CAF groups. Winning their remaining matches against Lesotho (away) and Benin (home) will be crucial.

2. How would a 3-point deduction for South Africa affect Nigeria’s World Cup chances?
If FIFA deducts 3 points from South Africa for fielding ineligible player Teboho Mokoena, South Africa would drop from 17 to 14 points. This would level them with Benin, making Group C highly competitive and significantly improving Nigeria’s chances of climbing to the top two spots for direct qualification.

3. What is the current CAF Group C standing for 2026 World Cup qualification?
As of September 2025, the Group C standings are:

• South Africa – 17 points

• Benin – 14 points

• Nigeria – 11 points

• Rwanda – 11 points

• Lesotho – 10 points

A point deduction or match outcomes in upcoming fixtures could dramatically alter these rankings.

4. Who are Nigeria’s remaining opponents in Group C?
Nigeria has two crucial matches remaining:

• Away vs Lesotho – an opportunity to gain three points and close the gap on the group leaders.

• Home vs Benin – a must-win to potentially secure a top-two finish and direct qualification.

5. How do best runners-up affect Nigeria’s 2026 World Cup qualification?
CAF allows the four best second-place or third-place teams across nine groups to compete in play-offs for a chance at the inter-confederation playoff. Nigeria, currently third in Group C, can qualify through this route if they perform strongly in remaining matches and have favorable results in other groups.

6. What precedent exists for point deductions in CAF World Cup qualifiers?
Recent examples include:

• Equatorial Guinea (2025) – docked six points for fielding ineligible striker Emilio Nsue, benefiting Nigeria’s ranking among best runners-up.

• South Africa (pending) – potential 3-point deduction could similarly affect Group C standings.

7. What is the impact of a points deduction on goal difference?
A points deduction also affects goal difference, which is the first tiebreaker in CAF qualification. Losing points while rivals gain could drastically shift Nigeria’s positioning. Maintaining or improving goal difference in the remaining matches is crucial for the Super Eagles.

8. How important is a win against Benin for Nigeria’s qualification?
Extremely important. Benin currently has 14 points, and a head-to-head victory could push Nigeria above them in the group standings. Combined with a potential South Africa sanction, this match could be decisive for direct World Cup qualification.

9. Could Nigeria still fail to qualify even with South Africa’s sanction?
Yes. Qualification depends on multiple factors, including:

• Winning both remaining matches

• Results from other Group C teams (Benin, Rwanda, Lesotho)

• Points and results from other CAF groups if aiming for best runners-up
  Even with South Africa docked points, Nigeria cannot rely solely on administrative decisions and must perform on the pitch.

10. When will FIFA announce a decision on South Africa’s potential point deduction?
FIFA has not yet provided a definitive ruling on South Africa’s breach regarding Teboho Mokoena. The timing of the decision is critical, as a retroactive point deduction could affect strategic preparation for Nigeria and other Group C teams.

11. How does Nigeria compare with other potential CAF best runners-up?
Current top runners-up in other CAF groups include:

• Gabon – 19 points

• Madagascar – 16 points

• DR Congo – 16 points

• Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Namibia, Uganda – 15 points

• Benin – 14 points
  Nigeria’s 11 points means they must win remaining matches and hope other results are favorable to secure a best runners-up spot.

12. What strategy should Nigeria adopt to maximize 2026 World Cup qualification chances?

• Win all remaining matches convincingly to boost points and goal difference.

• Monitor outcomes of South Africa’s pending sanction.

• Track results in other CAF groups to position as a strong runner-up if direct qualification fails.

13. How does Equatorial Guinea’s case impact Nigeria’s strategy?
The precedent set by Equatorial Guinea—losing six points for fielding an ineligible player—demonstrates that administrative errors can benefit competitors. Nigeria could gain indirectly if FIFA rules against South Africa, reinforcing the importance of maximizing points on the field while awaiting official decisions.