What next for opposition? How Tinubu floored Obi, Atiku in court

The February 25th presidential election like no other election attracted legal opposition. The names Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi flooded court action timelines.

Yes, presidential elections since 1999 have been challenged legally, save for that of 2015, but none gained as much attention as the 2023 presidential election. Again, none involved two strong opposition parties.

The 2023 presidential election was said to be highly rigged both from the end of Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Gregory Obi of the Labour Party (LP). They faulted INEC’s declaration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu of All Progressive Congress as president of Nigeria, each insisting that they won.

Atiku and Peter Obi’s arguments

• Atiku and Obi both claimed Tinubu was unqualified to run in the election and should be disqualified.
• Obi argued that Tinubu’s ineligibility was due to his history of dishonesty and narcotics trafficking, leading to a $460,000 fine in the United States
• Atiku alleged corrupt practices in Tinubu’s election and that he wasn’t duly elected by the majority of lawful votes.
• Atiku and Obi contended that a presidential candidate must secure 25 percent of valid votes in the Federal Capital Territory.
• Obi pointed out that Vice President Kashim Shettima was unqualified to run as he was already declared as the senatorial candidate for Borno Central.
• Obi called for the election’s cancellation and a rerun.

Tribunal Verdict

The tribunal dismissed Atiku and Obi’s petition against President Tinubu, stating they couldn’t prove their allegations.

Obi’s case

The tribunal rejected the LP and Peter Obi’s petition on iREV, stating INEC can choose the result transmission method.

It dismissed petitions about the 25 percent votes in FCT, as Abuja is treated like other states.

10 out of 13 LP witnesses were dismissed for failing to prove over-voting allegations.

Atiku’s case

Allegations including Tinubu’s forfeiture of $460, 000, forgery, dual citizenship, etc, which should have disqualified him were dismissed as the tribunal refused to nullify Tinubu’s election as there was no proof of substantial non-compliance, corrupt practices, and other irregularities.

Also, the petition lacked specifics on malpractices, and 27 witnesses were insufficient for a widespread election. Collation agents’ testimony was deemed ‘hearsay.’

Just as in Obi’s case the Electoral Act did not make not provision for electronic transmission, and IReV wasn’t part of the collation process.

His petition was also struck out as Issues included unnamed locations of ballot box snatching, BVAS machine manipulation, and polling booth names with alleged malpractices.

Atiku failed to clearly state his total lawful votes despite claiming to have the highest votes.

Supreme Court’s Position

The Supreme Court led by Inyang Okoro upheld the position of the Presidential Election Petition Court (PEPC) on the case and dismissed the admittance of Chicago State University forgery evidence by Atiku as it was admitted late.

Atiku Abubakar’s 30 years of defeat

Atiku Abubakar ran for President of Nigeria six times without success from 1993, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023.

1993

In 1993 he ran for president under the umbrella of the Social Democratic Party but lost in the primaries to Moshood Abiola and Baba Gana Kingibe.

2007

In the year 2007, he was a presidential candidate of the Action Congress. He came third place after Umaru Yar’Adua of the PDP and Muhammadu Buhari of the ANPP.

2011

In the presidential primaries of the People’s Democratic Party, he lost to former President Goodluck Jonathan.

2015

He contested against former President Muhammadu Buhari at the party primaries under APC after making a switch from PDP but was defeated.

2019

Atiku returned to base (PDP) in 2017, and was the party’s presidential candidate during the 2019 Presidential Election, but lost again to the sitting president Buhari. He took his case to the election tribunal but failed to get a favourable judgment.

2023

Atiku was elected as the Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate again for the 2023 general election. He, however, lost to Tinubu as he came in second in the February 25th presidential. Just as in 2019, Atiku came second again and took his case to court which has been dismissed by the Supreme Court of Nigeria.

Obi’s 20 years of losses and wins

Labour Party’s Peter Obi has contested general elections since 2003 and had a knack for losing at the polls but winning in court.

Timeline of elections 

2003

In 2003, Peter Obi Anambra state governorship election, as a member of the All Progressive Grand Alliance, but lost to former minister of Labour, Chris Ngige.

This was however nullified in 2006, and Obi was declared the winner of the 2003 election. He assumed office in March 2006 but was impeached in November of that same year by the Anambra House of Assembly, led by Hon. Mike Balonwu.

He, however, resumed office in February 2007, after his election was overturned.

Again, he was removed after the Anambra State Governorship Election but was saved by the judiciary which held that he be allowed to complete a full four-year term. He was reelected for a second term in 2010.

Peter Obi decamped to the PDP after his tenure as governor.

Obi was chosen as the PDP vice presidential nominee in the presidential election, with Atiku Abubakar, as presidential nominee. However, the PDP lost to APC’s President Muhammadu Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.

2023

In 2022, Obi declared interest in contesting for president in the PDP primaries but defected on the 24 of May, three days before the primaries to the Labour Party.

In the 2023 presidential election, he contested under the Umbrella of LP but was declared to have come third place after Tinubu and Atiku.

This has been contested both at the Election tribunal and Supreme, but his case was dismissed at both levels.

What Next for Atiku and Obi?

After Atiku’s 30 years of failed presidential election bids, and Obi’s series of losses and wins, coupled with the Supreme Judgement on the 2023 presidential election petition hopes seemed to have dampened.

However, there’s always a way. Although a Supreme Court judgment is final, it can be appealed if there is discovery of new evidence or a significant error in the Court’s decision. In terms of admittance of new evidence, with the CSU evidence being struck out, that possibility is quite shaky.

Also if there is a case of fraud, misconduct, or a violation of due process in the original case.

Also, new legislation and amendments to the constitution can help.

If this legal route doesn’t work, another route to go is to contest in the 2027 presidential election, yes it might be difficult to defeat a sitting president, but Muhammadu Buhari did it.