Is tropical storm Gezani expected to hit South Africa? What SA weather experts are warning about

Meteorologists in South Africa are keeping a close watch on moderate tropical storm Gezani, a developing weather system currently churning over the southwestern Indian Ocean, east of Madagascar. While the storm has drawn regional attention due to its strengthening potential, weather officials say there is no immediate danger to South Africa at this stage.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) confirmed that Gezani is being actively monitored as it continues to move westward under environmental conditions that are increasingly favourable for intensification. Forecast models indicate that the storm is on track to make landfall over eastern Madagascar by Tuesday afternoon, a development that could significantly alter its strength and trajectory.

Storm Could Strengthen Before Reaching Madagascar

According to SAWS forecasters, atmospheric and oceanic conditions ahead of Gezani remain conducive to further development. As the storm approaches Madagascar’s eastern coastline, it may strengthen into a fully fledged tropical cyclone, with the possibility—though not yet confirmed—of becoming an intense tropical cyclone before making landfall.

Meteorologists caution that such intensification would increase the likelihood of damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous sea conditions for coastal and inland communities in Madagascar. However, once the storm moves inland, interaction with landmass is expected to weaken the system.

“After landfall, Gezani is forecast to gradually lose strength while tracking southwestwards across Madagascar,” SAWS explained, noting that terrain and friction typically disrupt tropical systems as they move over land.

Mozambique Channel Brings New Uncertainty

While Gezani is expected to weaken over Madagascar, the forecast becomes less certain as the storm is predicted to emerge into the Mozambique Channel late on Wednesday. Weather experts say this phase of the storm’s life cycle will be critical.

The Mozambique Channel is known for warm sea surface temperatures, which can provide renewed energy to tropical systems. As a result, SAWS says environmental conditions in the channel may once again support reintensification.

Some computer models suggest that Gezani could drift closer to the Mozambican coastline later in the week, although forecasters stress that confidence in the storm’s exact path and strength remains low at this point.

“There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the system’s track and intensity during this phase,” SAWS noted, urging stakeholders to stay informed as forecasts evolve.

No Direct Threat to South Africa—For Now

Despite regional concerns, SAWS has reassured South Africans that Gezani poses no direct threat to the country at present. However, officials emphasize that tropical systems can change rapidly, especially when conditions favour strengthening.

Weather experts continue to assess whether indirect impacts—such as rough seas or changes in regional weather patterns—could affect parts of southern Africa in the coming days.

Maritime Warning Issued

In the meantime, SAWS has issued a marine advisory, urging vessels operating in or passing through the southwestern Indian Ocean and the Mozambique Channel to exercise heightened caution.

Rough seas, strong winds, and hazardous marine conditions are expected near the storm’s core, posing risks to shipping routes, offshore operations, and small craft.

Part of an Active Cyclone Season

Gezani is the seventh named storm of the 2025/26 southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season, underscoring the heightened activity across the region this year. The storm was officially named by South Africa in line with regional cyclone-naming protocols.

As the cyclone season progresses, meteorologists warn that similar systems may continue to develop, reinforcing the need for early warnings, preparedness, and regular updates from official weather authorities.

For now, SAWS says it will continue issuing updates as new data becomes available.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Is Tropical Storm Gezani expected to hit South Africa?
No. According to SAWS, there is currently no direct threat to South Africa.

Where is Tropical Storm Gezani located now?
The storm is over the southwestern Indian Ocean, east of Madagascar.

Will Gezani become a cyclone?
Forecasts suggest it could strengthen into a tropical cyclone, or possibly an intense tropical cyclone, before making landfall in Madagascar.

What happens after it reaches Madagascar?
Gezani is expected to weaken as it moves across the island, but may reintensify once it enters the Mozambique Channel.

Who should be concerned right now?
Marine operators, vessels, and coastal regions near Madagascar and potentially Mozambique should remain cautious.