Is the Supreme Court about to change the face of congress? The future of the Voting Rights Act explained

The Supreme Court’s conservative majority signaled this week that it may be ready to weaken or even dismantle a key section of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, a move experts warn could reshape the political future of the House of Representatives.

At the heart of the case is whether lawmakers can consider race when drawing congressional districts. The dispute stems from Louisiana, where a new map created two majority-Black districts for the first time in state history. Critics argue this constitutes racial gerrymandering, while supporters insist it’s a long-overdue correction to decades of voter suppression.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s Pivotal Role

Justice Brett Kavanaugh has emerged as the swing vote in this high-stakes case. In oral arguments, he questioned whether race-based districts should have a “time limit,” suggesting that remedies designed to increase minority representation should not be indefinite.

Analysts say Kavanaugh’s position could determine whether Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits voting practices that dilute minority influence, survives in its current form. If he joins the conservative bloc in curtailing Section 2, states across the South could eliminate several majority-minority districts, likely giving Republicans a stronger hold on the House.

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Potential Consequences for the U.S. House

Experts warn that striking down or weakening Section 2 could have immediate political consequences. According to The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman, removing protections for minority voting districts could give the GOP up to a dozen additional seats in the House, shifting the balance of power for years to come.

Democratic-held districts in states such as Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina could be redrawn in favor of Republican candidates, further reducing competition in congressional races. The ruling could also embolden state legislatures to pursue more aggressive gerrymanders ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

A New Chapter in America’s Redistricting Battle

Legal analysts note that this case marks the most significant challenge to the Voting Rights Act in over a decade, following the Court’s 2013 decision that removed federal oversight of states with histories of discrimination.

If Section 2 is struck down or weakened, civil rights groups fear the end of federal protection for minority representation, potentially reversing decades of progress. As Justice Elena Kagan warned during arguments, the “catastrophic” consequences could erase diversity in Congress and silence millions of minority voters.

The Bigger Picture: What’s at Stake

Beyond redistricting, the case will test whether the Court believes race can ever be a legitimate factor in policymaking. With former President Donald Trump and GOP leaders openly backing challenges to race-based remedies, the Court’s ruling could set a precedent affecting voting rights, affirmative action, and representation for generations.

A decision is expected by mid-2026, after most states’ election deadlines, meaning the political effects may not appear immediately. However, experts say the outcome will define the landscape of American democracy long after this election cycle.

FAQ

1. What is the Supreme Court Voting Rights Act case about?

The case centers on whether race can be considered when drawing congressional districts. It specifically examines Louisiana’s creation of a second majority-Black district, which some claim violates the Constitution’s equal protection clause.

2. What is Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act?

Section 2 prohibits any voting practice that results in racial discrimination or dilutes minority voting power. It has been the main legal tool to ensure fair representation for Black and minority voters since 1965.

3. Why is Brett Kavanaugh central to this case?

Justice Brett Kavanaugh is seen as the swing vote. His stance on setting “time limits” for race-based remedies could decide whether the Court upholds or weakens the Voting Rights Act’s protections.

4. How could this ruling affect the U.S. House of Representatives?

If Section 2 is struck down or limited, several minority-majority districts could disappear, potentially giving Republicans 10–12 more seats and altering the balance of power in Congress.

5. Could the decision impact the 2026 midterm elections?

Legal analysts say a ruling likely won’t affect the 2026 elections directly because states will have finalized their maps. However, it could reshape maps in later cycles, affecting long-term political control.

6. What happens if the Supreme Court weakens the Voting Rights Act?

Civil rights advocates warn it would erode protections against racial gerrymandering, allowing states to redraw maps that minimize minority voting influence. This could reverse decades of progress in racial representation.

7. How did the Voting Rights Act protect minority voters?

The Act was designed to prevent states from suppressing minority voting power. Section 2 has ensured that Black, Hispanic, and Native American voters can elect candidates who represent their communities.

8. What states will be most affected?

Southern state, including Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina, could see the biggest changes, as they contain many majority-minority districts protected under Section 2.

9. Is this the end of race-based redistricting?

Not necessarily. The Court could choose to modify how Section 2 is applied rather than striking it down entirely, limiting but not ending the use of race as a factor in district design.

10. When will the Supreme Court deliver its ruling?

A final decision is expected by mid-2026, setting the stage for major redistricting battles and potential legislative reform depending on the outcome.