Strait of Hormuz: What will happen if Iran shuts global oil corridor?
Israel and Iran’s lingering fight remains a subject of conversation globally amid talks to shut Strait of Hormuz. Photo Credit- Times of Israel
As tensions between Iran and Israel threaten to spiral into full-scale conflict, global markets and diplomatic channels are on high alert over Iran’s warning that it may move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint through which nearly a third of the world’s seaborne oil passes. The implications of such a move are vast, from energy price shocks and global supply chain disruptions to heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
The Strategic Strait: Why It Matters
The Strait of Hormuz, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is arguably the most strategic maritime passageway for global energy supply. It is just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point but serves as the transit route for more than 20 million barrels of oil per day. The strait is bordered to the north by Iran and to the south by Oman and the UAE, making it a flashpoint for regional power plays.
Any closure or military disruption of this passage would choke the oil exports of Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar, all of whom rely heavily on the strait to move their oil and gas to international markets.
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Rising Tensions and Tehran’s Warnings
Amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and Iran’s open support for Palestinian resistance groups, Tehran has issued repeated warnings against Israeli military operations in Gaza and any perceived Western complicity. Following Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria and Lebanon, Iranian officials hinted that retaliatory measures could extend to “strategic deterrents,” including action in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders have stated that “all options are on the table” and that Iran would not hesitate to block maritime traffic if its national security or regional allies were threatened. Though such threats are not new, the tone and timing have raised concerns among global powers and oil-importing nations.
Regional and Global Repercussions
If Iran follows through with its threat to shut the strait, the immediate consequence would be a global energy crisis. Oil prices could skyrocket past $150 per barrel, surpassing even the highs seen during the Russia-Ukraine war. Major economies dependent on Gulf oil—such as China, India, Japan, and several European nations—would face severe disruptions.
In addition, such a move would likely trigger a direct military response from the United States, which maintains a strong naval presence in the Gulf through the Fifth Fleet. The Pentagon has reiterated its commitment to keeping the strait open, calling any attempt to block it a “red line” that would not be tolerated. A military clash in the strait would risk pulling more countries into the Iran-Israel standoff and destabilising the broader Middle East.
Oil Markets React as Talks Stall
The possibility of a Hormuz closure has already sent tremors through global oil markets, with Brent crude prices rising by over 7% in recent days. Shipping insurance rates have soared, and major tanker companies are reportedly reviewing alternative routes and contingency plans.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the Iran-Israel conflict appear to be stalling. The United Nations, European Union, and several Gulf states have urged restraint and warned that any move to weaponise the Strait of Hormuz would be catastrophic. However, with both Israel and Iran doubling down on their positions, the path to de-escalation remains narrow.
The Stakes Ahead
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz underscores the broader dangers of unchecked conflict in the Middle East. As Iran continues to assert its regional influence and Israel remains determined to neutralise threats to its security, the risk of an unintended or strategic escalation grows.
The world watches with bated breath. For now, the strait remains open, but the threat alone has reawakened fears of a global economic shock. Should Iran follow through with its threat, the consequences may be swift, sweeping, and irreversible.