Pi Network: Will growing popularity translate to a price surge?

Pi Network (PI) is generating buzz around its growing adoption, but the million-dollar question remains: will this popularity lead to a sustained price surge? Trading under the psychologically important $0.50 mark, Pi faces bearish indicators and significant token unlocks. This report breaks down price trends, sentiment shifts, and what it all means for investors heading into July 2025.

Price Slips Under $0.50 Resistance

As of July 4, 2025, Pi trades around $0.48, struggling to break through the critical $0.50 resistance level. The token recently dipped about 2% after forming a neutral Doji candle, reinforcing a sideways or slightly downward trajectory. Persistent resistance near $0.53–$0.54 continues to cap the short-term rally.

Bearish Technical Momentum Dominates

Key technical indicators paint a cautious picture. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is signaling a sell as its line falls below the signal line. The relative strength index (RSI) hovers near 34–36, flirting with oversold territory but offering no clear bounce-back yet. A daily close below $0.4711 could invite more selling toward $0.40.

Social Hype Versus Foundation Outflows

On-chain metrics show a paradox: while social media chatter is increasing, Santiment reports a jump from 0.18% to 0.39% in social dominance, the Pi Foundation’s wallet offloaded 5.8 million PI tokens in 24 hours, outpacing uptake from exchanges. This suggests rising visibility may not yet mean steady demand.

Token Unlocks Trigger Supply Headwinds

Monthly unlocks, about 276–318 million PI tokens, are dribbling into circulation, hinting at imminent oversupply. Analysts warn that unless fresh capital offsets this influx, prices could drop below $0.45 or even approach the June low of $0.40.

Will PI Ever Hit $1 in 2025?

Optimistic forecasts abound, with Coinpedia and TradingView suggesting a rebound above $0.60 could trigger upward momentum to $0.70—and if key triggers emerge, a rally toward $1 isn’t off the table. Still, most technical projections see near-term price action between $0.45 and $0.52.

Utility and Adoption Could Tilt the Balance

Pi’s progress in AI-based applications, 7,900 launched to date, is a testament to growing utility. Similarly, listing on major exchanges like Binance or Coinbase could propel PI’s value skyward, some forecasts even suggest a future $3–$10 price tag. But until these catalysts materialize, prices may remain capped.

Investor Caution Ahead of Key Levels

Short-term traders watch $0.4719–$0.4800 as a critical demand zone; a breakdown could trigger a slide to $0.44–$0.45. A decisive breakout above $0.53–$0.54, combined with subdued sell pressure, is required to signal trend reversal.

Long-Term Outlook: Hopeful But Cautious

Long-term models remain mixed: CoinCodex suggests a drop of ~25% to $0.35 by August if bearish forces dominate, while Coinpedia’s extended forecast places PI between $0.32 and $0.47 by year-end. However, sustained adoption, mainnet activation, or listings could unlock exponential gains.

Final Thoughts: Popularity Isn’t Enough—Yet

Pi Network’s ascent is rooted in community enthusiasm and utility development, but translating that into price requires more. Supply pressures, token unlocks, and bearish sentiment are testing the token. Unless strong catalysts arrive, price is likely to remain range-bound. That said, a breakout above $0.53 could switch momentum, and sentiment, dramatically.