Has Bitcoin entered its ‘Fall Season’? Morgan Stanley warns of a critical turning point

Bitcoin’s recent dip below $103,000 has sparked renewed debate about the cryptocurrency’s long-term trajectory. According to Morgan Stanley strategists, the digital asset is now in the “fall” phase of its historic four-year market cycle, a period often marked by cooling momentum and investor rebalancing before the next “crypto winter.”

Morgan Stanley Calls It the ‘Fall Phase’, What Does That Mean for Bitcoin Investors?

In a new analysis, Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, described Bitcoin’s market rhythm as a “three-up, one-down” cycle, mirroring seasonal shifts. He said the current “fall” phase represents a time when investors typically take profits, reassess portfolios, and prepare for potential downturns.

“Fall is the time for harvest,” Galindo noted. “It’s when investors want to secure gains before the next winter begins.”

This cyclical perspective suggests that major financial institutions now view Bitcoin much like commodities or macro-driven assets, incorporating timing-based strategies into crypto exposure, a clear sign of mainstream adoption within Wall Street circles.

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Bitcoin Price Dips Below Key Level as Institutional Sentiment Shifts

On November 5, Bitcoin slipped beneath its 365-day moving average, a signal that historically aligns with shifts in market momentum. Analysts at CryptoQuant and Stocktwits observed a 1.6% drop in BTC prices to $103,559, while Ethereum and other altcoins followed with steeper declines.

Crypto market-maker Wintermute reported that liquidity inflows from stablecoins, ETFs, and digital treasuries have plateaued, a warning that market enthusiasm may be cooling even as U.S. equities rebound amid easing political tensions and the end of the government shutdown.

Still, Morgan Stanley analysts believe institutional interest remains resilient, emphasizing that major players continue to view Bitcoin as digital gold and a hedge against inflation despite short-term volatility.

Institutional Adoption and ETFs Are Redefining Bitcoin’s Market Cycle

Michael Cyprys, head of U.S. brokers and asset managers at Morgan Stanley Research, said institutional investment in Bitcoin is growing more strategic and measured. Firms are guided by risk committees and long-term mandates, meaning decisions take time but remain structurally bullish.

With U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs holding over $137 billion in net assets and Ethereum ETFs at $22.4 billion, traditional investors now have unprecedented access to regulated crypto exposure. This new infrastructure could soften Bitcoin’s cyclical downturns, allowing a more stable evolution than previous bull-bear swings.

Analysts Divided: Will ‘Fall’ Lead to Another Crypto Winter?

While Morgan Stanley urges caution, not all analysts agree on the “fall” narrative. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, argues that favorable monetary conditions and expanding global liquidity could delay or prevent a severe bear market.

However, investor sentiment on Stocktwits remains largely bearish. Many retail traders expect further downside, believing “money won’t flow into crypto until 2026.”

Whether Bitcoin is preparing for winter or just cooling off before another rally, the consensus is clear: the cycle is shifting, and institutional behavior will determine how deep the correction goes.

FAQ

1. What did Morgan Stanley say about Bitcoin?
Morgan Stanley analysts stated that Bitcoin has entered the “fall phase” of its four-year market cycle, a period typically characterized by slowing growth and increased profit-taking before potential downturns.

2. What is the ‘fall season’ in Bitcoin’s cycle?
The “fall season” refers to a transitional stage where Bitcoin’s price stabilizes or corrects after extended growth. It’s often seen as the moment investors harvest gains before the onset of a “crypto winter.”

3. Why did Bitcoin drop below $103,000?
The decline followed broader market rebalancing as liquidity inflows from stablecoins, ETFs, and treasuries plateaued. Analysts also cite heavy whale selling and macro uncertainty tied to U.S. fiscal developments.

4. Is Morgan Stanley bearish on Bitcoin long-term?
Not entirely. While cautioning about short-term correction, Morgan Stanley maintains that institutional investors still view Bitcoin as digital gold and a macro hedge against inflation and currency debasement.

5. How do institutional investors approach Bitcoin differently?
Institutions move slowly due to strict internal processes but are steadily increasing allocations through regulated channels like ETFs, which now hold over $137 billion in Bitcoin assets.

6. Will Bitcoin enter another crypto winter in 2025?
Some analysts believe the next “winter” could arrive within months, while others argue strong ETF inflows and improved regulation may cushion the downturn or delay it entirely.

7. What does this mean for everyday investors?
Investors should watch key support levels around $103K and resistance near $110K while re-evaluating portfolios ahead of possible volatility in 2026.

8. How does this tie into global market trends?
Bitcoin’s performance now aligns more closely with macroeconomic shifts, equities, and institutional behavior, signaling that crypto is increasingly part of the mainstream financial cycle.