FG declares Tuesday public holiday to honour Buhari — here’s all to know

What Buhari’s Death Means for Nigerian Politics and the 2027 Election

The passing of former President Muhammadu Buhari on July 13, 2025, in London marks the end of a defining era in Nigeria’s modern political history. Known for his stern anti-corruption rhetoric, military discipline, and devotion to conservative ideals, Buhari’s presence loomed large over the political landscape for nearly two decades. Now, with the 2027 general election approaching, his absence ushers in both uncertainty and opportunity for leaders, parties, and the wider electorate.

Northern Bloc Realignment: A Power Vacuum Emerges

For many in northern Nigeria, Buhari was more than just a former president—he was a symbolic icon, known affectionately as the “northern star.” His grassroots standing and personal appeal created a formidable political force. Without him, the All Progressives Congress (APC) will need new northern voices to maintain unity. Figures like Rabiu Kwankwaso, Nasir El-Rufai, and Kashim Shettima may rise to fill the void, but the question remains whether any single leader can match Buhari’s sway—a critical factor in balance-of-power dynamics within the northern bloc.

Impact on Zoning Discussions and APC Cohesion

Nigeria’s informal power-sharing convention, often referred to as “zoning,” has governed most presidencies since the Second Republic. Buhari’s death may rekindle debates over whether the North should yield to the South after Bola Tinubu—another power center in the southwest—leads the country. If northern leaders feel sidelined, this could spark internal friction within the APC. Conversely, without Buhari’s moral aura, Tinubu’s bid for a second term may gain traction, though it risks being perceived as over-concentration of power in the South-West.

APC Factional Meddling and Potential Splintering

While still powerful, the APC faces growing internal strife. Reports indicate that factions associated with Buhari—the CPC legacy wing—are debating their alignment and investigating splinter groups . Additionally, sources describe covert tension between pro‑Tinubu forces and remnants of the Buhari camp. With Buhari’s death removing the balance between these groups, the APC risks deeper factionalism, making unity ahead of 2027 increasingly difficult.

An Opportunity for Opposition Coalitions

Buhari’s passing weakens the APC’s narrative… but it may also galvanize the opposition. Analysts anticipate that former rivals like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and Kwankwaso will explore coalition-building against the APC’s platform . Cross-regional alliances—a combination of PDP, Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)—may gain momentum if they unite under a clear vision while the APC is perceived to be distracted by internal bickering.

Shifting Political Narratives — Beyond Corruption and Insecurity

Under Buhari’s eight-year presidency, Nigeria grappled with persistent insecurity—insurgent attacks, banditry, and separatist agitations—as well as public frustration over corruption that continued to flourish despite high-profile arrests. His death may foster a shift in campaign messaging: from Buhari-era shortcomings to accountability under a new generation. Candidates in 2027 may focus less on Buhari’s legacy and more on forward-looking reforms—emphasizing economic revitalization, anti-graft policies, and national cohesion.

Geopolitical Leverage of Former Presidents

Buhari, even after leaving office, commanded respect from foreign leaders and held strategic influence. He played key roles in regional diplomacy and development initiatives. His absence may alter how international partners engage with Nigeria. As a result, future administrations may struggle to replicate Buhari’s courtesy and stature in international spaces, affecting geopolitical leverage and aid negotiations.

Electoral Chemistry: Youth Engagement and Political Disillusionment

Since Buhari’s administration, Nigeria witnessed generational upheavals—protests like #EndBadGovernance and growing youth impatience over economic decline and insecurity. Candidates in 2027 can no longer rely on Buhari’s folk-hero narrative to mobilize the electorate. Instead, appealing to a youthful, disenfranchised demographic will depend on credible reforms, digital engagement, and transparent governance promises.

Tinubu’s Second-Term Bid: Checking for Southern Overreach

President Tinubu’s 2023 ascent was supported significantly by Buhari’s northern bloc loyalty. With Buhari gone, Tinubu may see a reduction of northern deference. His ambitions for a second term will likely face fresh scrutiny from northern elites wary of “Ile‑Ife/Lagos concentration” of power . Whether Tinubu can secure comprehensive national support—or falter under accusations of regionalism—will be determined by how he addresses northern sensitivities and zone balance ahead of 2027.

The Religious and Ethnic Calculation

Beyond politics, Buhari’s death reverberates through Nigeria’s religious and ethnic power equations. As a Fulani Muslim from the North, his symbolic presence has long provided reassurance to northern stakeholders worried about southern dominance. In 2027, maintaining equilibrium between Christian-dominated South and Muslim-dominated North will be critical. Candidates and parties must craft inclusive platforms to prevent the resurgence of identity conflicts, especially if Buhari’s spiritual mantle is absent from the national discourse.

Long-Term Implication: Merit vs Identity Politics

Buhari’s rise and governance underscored Nigeria’s reliance on identity politics—primarily ethnicity, religion, and regional appeal. His death offers a chance for a new normal—one based on merit, development, and civic competence. Should the 2027 election emphasize performance audits, issue-based campaigns, and institutional accountability, it could mark a departure from the era shaped by Buhari’s symbolic authority.

A Defining Turning Point for Nigerian Democracy

Muhammadu Buhari’s death marks the end of a political epoch and the start of a crucial transition. The 2027 election presents both risks and opportunities: internal conflict within the APC, shifting northern loyalties, and a volatile youth-led electorate. The ability of parties and candidates to rise above identity politics—and to offer tangible solutions to Nigeria’s challenges—will define the nation’s next democratic chapter.

Whether Nigeria embraces institutional reform or falls back into the old cycles of patronage and personality-driven campaigns depends on this pivotal moment. Buhari’s departure invites a generational shake-up. The onus now lies on political actors to seize the moment—if they truly value what Buhari claimed to stand for: unity, integrity, and national revival.