South Africa’s bid to reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup has hit a major setback after FIFA handed down a disciplinary sanction for fielding an ineligible player.

Midfielder Teboho Mokoena, who should have been serving a suspension after picking up two yellow cards, was included in the squad that beat Lesotho 2-0 in March. FIFA’s disciplinary committee has since ruled that the result is null and void, awarding Lesotho a 3-0 victory.

In addition to the forfeit, the South African Football Association (SAFA) has been fined 10,000 Swiss Francs ($12,500/£9,340), while Mokoena himself has received a formal warning.

The ruling has dramatically reshaped Group C in African qualifying. South Africa, who previously sat three points clear at the summit, now slip to second place on goal difference, with Benin moving into pole position. This opens the door wide for Nigeria and Rwanda, both just three points behind the leaders, to reignite their World Cup hopes.

The road ahead looks tense. Between 10–14 October, Benin will face decisive clashes against Rwanda and Nigeria, while South Africa must navigate a tricky away tie against Zimbabwe before hosting Rwanda in what could be a qualification decider.

SAFA has been given 10 days to appeal FIFA’s ruling, but for now, Bafana Bafana’s path to the tournament in North and Central America is more uncertain than ever.

Can South Africa Still Qualify for the 2026 World Cup? — An Analysis

Short Answer: Yes — but the path is narrow. South Africa still control their destiny on paper, but favorable results and at least one slip by Benin are likely needed to top Group C and qualify directly. An appeal against FIFA’s ruling could change the scenario, with SAFA having 10 days to request one.

Key Facts After FIFA’s Decision

FIFA awarded Lesotho a 3–0 win for the March fixture after ruling Teboho Mokoena ineligible, deducting three points from South Africa. The Group C standings after eight matches now read:

• Benin: 14 pts (GD +4)

• South Africa: 14 pts (GD +3)

• Nigeria: 11 pts

• Rwanda: 11 pts

  
  
  

• Lesotho: 9 pts

• Zimbabwe: 4 pts

Only the group winner qualifies directly for the World Cup.

South Africa have two matches left: away to Zimbabwe on October 10 and home to Rwanda on October 14. Benin’s remaining fixtures are away to Rwanda (Oct 10) and away to Nigeria (Oct 14). Nigeria and Rwanda still remain within striking distance.

SAFA has a 10-day window to appeal the FIFA ruling, which could suspend or overturn the sanction pending the Appeal Committee’s decision.

Maximum Points and Current Standings

• Current points: South Africa 14, Benin 14, Nigeria 11, Rwanda 11

• Maximum points possible (two matches left): +6

This means:

• South Africa and Benin can still finish ahead of Nigeria and Rwanda if they win both matches.

• Nigeria and Rwanda can only catch up if the top two slip and they win both remaining games.

Key Scenarios for South Africa

A — Win Both Matches (Best-Case Scenario)

• Beat Zimbabwe and Rwanda → finish on 20 points.

• If Benin drops points in either game → South Africa tops the group.

• If Benin also wins both → tiebreakers (goal difference, goals scored) come into play. With Benin currently ahead on GD (+4 vs +3), South Africa would need bigger winning margins to overtake.

B — Win One, Draw One (4 Points Gained)

• Finish on 18 points.

• Qualification depends on Benin dropping points in at least one fixture.

• If Benin wins both → South Africa likely finishes second and may only reach playoffs if they are among the best runners-up.

C — Win One, Lose One or Draw Both (2–2 Points)

• Likely leaves South Africa behind a team that wins or wins + draws.

• Direct qualification becomes unlikely, dependent on multiple favorable results elsewhere.

D — Lose Either Match

• A loss would make direct qualification very difficult unless Benin and other rivals perform poorly simultaneously.

Practical Assessment & Probabilities

• Most realistic route: Win both remaining games or win one and hope Benin drops points.

• Benin’s current goal-difference advantage makes South Africa’s safest path winning both matches.

• A successful appeal could restore the three-point cushion, relieving immediate pressure.

Tactical Considerations

1. Beat Zimbabwe away (Oct 10) – Must-win to maintain momentum; avoid complacency.

2. Big win vs Rwanda at home (Oct 14) – Home advantage should be maximized; margin of victory matters for tiebreakers.

3. Monitor Benin’s results – Any slip opens the path for South Africa.

4. Psychology & squad management – The FIFA sanction is a blow; focus and discipline are essential.

What About Nigeria and Rwanda?

• Both sit on 11 points with two matches remaining.

• Even perfect form may not be enough if South Africa and Benin perform well.

• They remain outside direct control of their destiny; only favorable top-two results combined with wins would allow them to leapfrog.

South Africa’s Must-Do List

1. Primary: Win both remaining matches — the safest route.

2. Secondary: Win one and hope Benin drops points.

3. Contingency: Aggressively pursue an appeal — a successful outcome restores South Africa’s original three-point lead.

FAQ 

Q1: Has South Africa been disqualified from the 2026 World Cup?
No, South Africa has not been disqualified. They were sanctioned by FIFA for fielding an ineligible player, losing three points. They still have a path to qualification, depending on their remaining matches and results from other teams.

Q2: How many matches does South Africa have left in Group C?
South Africa has two matches remaining: away to Zimbabwe on October 10 and home to Rwanda on October 14, 2025.

Q3: What are South Africa’s chances of qualifying directly?
Their best chance is to win both remaining matches. Winning one and relying on Benin dropping points is possible but less secure. Losing either match significantly reduces their chances.

Q4: Can an appeal against FIFA’s ruling affect South Africa’s qualification chances?
Yes. SAFA has 10 days to file an appeal. If successful, the appeal could restore the three points and improve South Africa’s position in the standings.

Q5: What role do goal difference and results from other teams play?
Goal difference could be decisive if South Africa and Benin finish on equal points. Additionally, results from Benin, Nigeria, and Rwanda will affect South Africa’s qualification chances.

Q6: What is the simplest path for South Africa to qualify?
Win both remaining matches and hope Benin drops points in at least one game. This scenario maximizes their chance of topping Group C.