Can Nigeria still qualify for the 2026 World Cup? Here’s the arithmetic

Short answer up front: Yes — Nigeria is still mathematically alive, but the route to automatic qualification is narrow and depends not just on the Super Eagles winning their remaining games, but on South Africa dropping points (and on how Benin and Rwanda fare). Finishing second and squeezing into the CAF runners-up play-offs is a more realistic — but still demanding — path. Below I show the current table, the exact arithmetic, the realistic scenarios, and a practical “what Nigeria must do” plan. All stats and fixtures cited are current to the matches played on 5–6 Sept 2025.

Where things stand right now

(standings and recent result that changed the picture)

• South Africa — 7 matches, 16 points (after a 3–0 win over Lesotho on 5 Sept).

• Benin — 7 matches, 11 points (beat Zimbabwe 1–0 on 5 Sept).

• Rwanda — 6 matches, 8 points.

• Nigeria — 6 matches, 7 points (1 win, 4 draws, 1 loss; GF 7, GA 6).

• Lesotho — 7 matches, 6 points.

  
  
  

• Zimbabwe — 7 matches, 4 points.

(Official CAF/WCQ format reminder: the nine group winners qualify automatically for the 2026 World Cup; the four best runners-up across the groups go into CAF play-offs for a place in the inter-confederation play-offs.)

Nigeria’s next four fixtures (the only four they have left):
6 Sept (H) v Rwanda, 9 Sept (A) v South Africa (Toyota Stadium, Bloemfontein), 6 Oct (A) v Lesotho, 13 Oct (H) v Benin. (Those four will complete Nigeria’s 10 group games.)

The raw arithmetic

With six teams and a double round-robin each team plays 10 matches.

• Nigeria: played 6, 7 pts, remaining 4 → maximum possible = 7 + (4×3) = 19 points.

  
  
  

• South Africa: played 7, 16 pts, remaining 3 → maximum possible = 16 + (3×3) = 25 points.

• Benin: played 7, 11 pts, remaining 3 → max = 20.

• Rwanda: played 6, 8 pts, remaining 4 → max = 20.

So: Nigeria’s ceiling is 19. That means:

• If Nigeria reaches 19, they can only finish above South Africa if South Africa finishes 18 or fewer (i.e. if South Africa picks ≤2 points from their three remaining matches).

• Nigeria cannot stop Benin or Rwanda from reaching 20 unless Nigeria beats those teams in head-to-head (i.e., Nigeria must directly deny them full points when they meet).

(Short math example: SA = 16 now; SA final = 16 + x. For SA ≤18 you need x ≤ 2. That’s at most two draws — or one draw + two losses — across their last three matches.)

Direct-qualification (win the group) — what must happen

Best (and very tight) blueprint for Nigeria to finish 1st:

1. Win all four remaining games (Rwanda H, South Africa A, Lesotho A, Benin H) → Nigeria finishes on 19 points. (This is the only way Nigeria can hit 19.)

2. South Africa must collect at most 2 points from their three remaining games (including the match vs Nigeria). That means SA must lose at least two of their remaining three matches or lose one and draw one (or lose all three). If South Africa pick 3 points or more, South Africa will finish ≥19 and could stay ahead.

3. Because Nigeria would have beaten Rwanda and Benin in this “win all four” scenario, both Rwanda and Benin cannot reach 20 (their theoretical 20-point maximum collapses when they drop the game to Nigeria). So the only team Nigeria needs to contain in that scenario is South Africa.

In plain terms: Nigeria can still top the group — but only if they win every single remaining game and South Africa stumbles badly. That’s possible, but narrow.

One practical variant: If Nigeria wins 3 and draws 1 (17 points) and South Africa drops heavy points (finishes 16–17) there are tiebreaker permutations (head-to-head, goal difference). CAF/FIFA tiebreakers prioritize head-to-head between tied teams, then goal difference, etc., so those details would matter. (Regulations: FIFA/CAF tiebreakers apply.)

Runner-up (play-off) path — the more realistic hope

Because only four of the nine group runners-up advance to a CAF play-off, finishing second in Group C does not guarantee a play-off slot — you must be one of the four best 2nd-placed teams across all groups.

Practical scoring thresholds from other groups right now show second-place teams sitting anywhere from low-teens up to the high teens (you’ll see groups with second place already on 15–18 pts). As a rule of thumb:

• If Nigeria can finish with 17–19 points, they have a strong chance of being among the top four runners-up.

• If Nigeria finishes with ~16 points, they might qualify as one of the four best runners-up but it depends on results in other groups — risky.

• Under 15 points and Nigeria would almost certainly be out of the running for the play-off slot.

Concrete, achievable plan for the runners-up route: Win at least three of the four and draw one (that gives 17 points). A 3W+1D pattern would probably put Nigeria in the conversation for a top-four runner-up spot.

Other factors that can change the table fast

1. Disciplinary/administrative rulings. There’s an ongoing issue about South Africa having fielded an ineligible/ suspended player in an earlier match (March). If FIFA/CAF dock points or reverse a result, the table could be recalculated and the whole race would change overnight. That uncertainty matters — it helps Nigeria’s chances if SA lose points. (This matter is under discussion in football media and reported by Reuters.)

2. Head-to-head tiebreakers and goal difference. If two teams end level on points, CAF/FIFA rules use head-to-head (points in direct matches between the tied teams), then head-to-head goal difference, then overall GD, then goals scored, etc. That’s why wins against direct rivals (Benin, Rwanda, SA) matter doubly.

3. Form & injuries — Nigeria’s group shows many draws (Nigeria has 4 draws). Converting draws to wins is crucial; injuries/suspensions in the next three weeks (especially before the Bloemfontein trip) will be decisive. (See recent match previews & squad notes.)

Tactical / managerial checklist — realistic priorities for the Super Eagles

1. Beat Rwanda (6 Sept, Uyo). This is the must-win opener. A draw leaves Nigeria in a deeper hole going to Bloemfontein. (Match info: 6 Sept kickoff; Uyo.)

2. Target at least a draw in Bloemfontein (9 Sept). An away draw keeps SA’s lead manageable and preserves margin for October. But a win in Bloemfontein would dramatically flip the group because of head-to-head advantage.

3. Exploit Lesotho (6 Oct) for goals and GD. If Nigeria needs tie-breakers later, padding the goal difference vs Lesotho is a low-risk place to do it.

4. Use the Benin home game (13 Oct) as a decider. Nigeria must be organized and clinical — beating Benin at home not only adds 3 points but denies Benin the points they currently sit on (and constrains Benin’s max).

5. Discipline & cards: avoid suspensions. With such a tight schedule, losing players to cards would be costly. (Tiebreakers also sometimes come back to fair-play in extreme ties.)

Example scenario breakdown

• Best case (direct): Nigeria wins all 4 → 19 pts. If South Africa picks 0–2 points from their last 3, Nigeria finishes 1st. (This is the only straightforward path to first place.)

• Good case (play-offs likely): Nigeria wins 3 and draws 1 → 17 pts. That is usually competitive for one of the four best runners-up across CAF; Nigeria would then need some favourable results elsewhere but would be in contention.

• Bad case: Nigeria fails to win at least 3 of 4 (e.g., 2 wins + draws/losses) → finishing on 13–16 points — increasingly unlikely to make either automatic spot or the top-four runner-up slots.

What fans and journalists should watch in the next 72 hours

• 6 Sept (today): Nigeria v Rwanda (Uyo) — must-win. Win here and you’re still very much alive.

• 5–9 Sept results that matter: Benin’s matches (they just beat Zimbabwe), South Africa’s result vs Nigeria (9 Sept) — if SA win, they’ll be very hard to catch; if SA drop points, Group C opens up.

• FIFA/disciplinary update on the earlier South Africa ineligible-player case — any reversal could alter the table instantly.

Bottom line

• Automatic qualification (group winner): Mathematically possible but narrow. Nigeria must win all four remaining games and hope South Africa picks up no more than 2 points from its last three. That’s a tough but not impossible chain of events.

• Play-off route (four best runners-up): More realistic — if Nigeria can convert draws into wins and finish on 17–19 points, they have a strong shot at being one of the four best runners-up. Anything below ~16 points and the path becomes unlikely.

• Immediate priority: Beat Rwanda tonight; then take at least a point in Bloemfontein. Those two results will preserve both the direct chance and a strong runner-up push.