Analysing BBNaija All-Stars’ chances of winning N120m based on popularity

The former housemates are back in BBNaija to compete for N120 million, and everyone knows it’s a big deal because this season has been highlight after highlight. With the huge cash prize on the line, everyone is bringing their A-game, and we’ve already run into some interesting surprises this season.

The Level-Up clique that most people believed would have the littlest impact has continued to dominate conversations, with Ilebaye remaining as a topic and gathering the most new fans this season, Doyin being the house therapist, and Adekunle changing his narrative with the emergence of Bad Boy Deks.

Whitemoney isn’t as spicy as we would like, but there’s a chance the WM Gang do not care and will fight to keep him in the house.

Despite these surprises, we can’t help but wonder if the conversations will translate to votes or if those with more social media followers still have an advantage. So, we gathered a lot about the housemates and their social media standings and divided them into five groups.

The multiple million babies are those who have up to two million followers. It would mean they made it to the top 5 on their seasons and remained relevant and loved by fans, at least on Instagram, till they returned to Big Brother’s house.

Mercy (3.7m), Alex (3.3m), Cee-C (3.1m), Whitemoney (2M) and Ike (2.2M) fall into this category. Ike, in this group, already proves that the followers do not necessarily translate to voting numbers. He was in the bottom three last week Sunday and only managed to gather 1.59% of the total votes.

The next group of housemates have at least a million followers on Instagram or a little more, but not up to 2 million. 35% of All-Stars contestants fall into this group. They include Angel (1.2M), Frodd (1.2M), Tolanibaj (1.2M), Neo (1.3M), Venita (1.3M), Kiddwaya (1.6M), and Uriel (1.7M).

It’s difficult to say if these housemates’ followers are keeping them safe, but none of them made it to the bottom three in the first week. However, Uriel and Tolanibaj were in the bottom three this past week, with Uriel saying goodbye to the house.

The next category has at least half a million or almost a million followers. It would be unsurprising if they cross the million mark while still on the show, especially if they continue to bring premium content. Housemates like Pere (780K), Cross (928K), and Seyi (913K) come in here.

However, Seyi’s almost one million followers went to sleep last week and the week before. They failed to vote for him as he surprised the nation by gathering the least votes (0.89%) in the first eviction cycle.

You would not believe this, but there are those with less than half a million followers in the house who are at the centre of conversations. It is also important to note that the more people talk about them, the quicker their pages grow.

A prime example is Ilebaye, who came in with less than 150k followers on Instagram but has now moved up to (269K). We can bet the number would have increased when this goes to press. Others include Adekunle (404K), Doyin (445k), Princess (356k), and Soma (294k). Apart from Princess, who went home last week Sunday when the eviction jury chose her out of the bottom 2 (1.54%), the others appear safe for now. It proves that social media numbers may not matter as much as you think; only the voting figures do.

The numbers do not necessarily maintain the same energy on Twitter, and the conversations and organic trends also differ. For example, Whitemoney has 142.4K followers, and Ilebaye only has 110k. Still, she has dominated discussions more than the Shine Ya Eye winner. Only Mercy appears to be the exception, maintaining equally high followership numbers across both platforms. She has 924.2K followers.

Other multiple million to half a million crew on Instagram have interestingly smaller numbers on the text-based social media platform. Cee-C has 202.1K, Alex boasts 223.8k, and Ike has 305.7k followers. Those in the ‘milli gang’ record the following numbers – Angel (154K), Frodd (183.6K), Tolanibaj (541.9K), Neo (520.7K), Venita (295.4K), Kiddwaya (800.1K), and Uriel (34.1K). The disparity in numbers shows that things don’t stay the same across platforms, and people with few followers on Instagram can get a much-needed boost on Twitter.

Other housemates in lower Instagram categories have the following follower count: Pere (281.6K), Cross (180.4K), Seyi (216.1K), Adekunle (119.2K), Doyin (141.8k), Princess (0), and Soma (36.7k).

Still, there may be smaller numbers on Instagram and Twitter for a few reasons different from housemates not being loved. A significant reason is that hackers can sometimes take over the accounts, like with Whitemoney’s page. Adekunle, Pere and Kiddwaya also lost their first Instagram pages to hackers during their first time in the Biggieverse. The same can happen on Twitter, or the owners may seize or deactivate the account if people report it a lot.

Still, the topic in contention is how the numbers translate to keeping the housemates in the game till the finale. Sadly, they don’t do anything (ask Seyi and Ike) unless the followers actually vote for them. The best way with the most impact to vote is by using the MyDStv and MyGOtv apps. DStv gives as much as 10,000 or 2,500 votes (Prestige/Premium) to as little as 200 votes. While GOtv has as many as 750 votes and as little as 200. The web and mobile sites only give 100 votes. If fans want to compete with other fan bases and stay in the game, they must successfully convince their followers to subscribe and vote!

In the meantime, after this gruelling audit of the housemates’ pages, here are our top 5 predictions, especially if their followers vote. This is in no particular order – Mercy, Cee-C, Alex, Kiddwaya, and Neo.

If your favourite didn’t make this prediction list and you’re upset about it, don’t just complain; do something. Go out and vote, convert others, spread the gospel of your fave, and make sure they beat those with the higher social media numbers. If for nothing else, just so you can boast that the followers don’t really count, their intentions do.