2026 World Cup: What South Africa must do to qualify

After six matches in CAF Group C of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, South Africa sit top of the table with 13 points, establishing themselves as front-runners for a direct ticket to North America. Hugo Broos’ men have been consistent, winning four of their six games, drawing once, and losing just once. With four fixtures remaining, they are in pole position, but their closest challengers—Rwanda (8 points), Benin (8 points), and Nigeria (7 points)—remain within striking distance.

South Africa’s fate is largely in their own hands. If Bafana Bafana maintain their momentum and manage the September double-header, they could edge closer to their first World Cup appearance since hosting the tournament in 2010.

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Scenario 1: Winning Group C (Direct Qualification)

South Africa currently lead by five points over second place. They can secure qualification by reaching 19–21 points, a tally that would almost certainly guarantee top spot.

• Key September matches: A tricky home game against Nigeria and a potential banana-skin trip to Lesotho.

  
  
  

• If they beat Nigeria at home, they would open up an 8-point gap, effectively knocking the Super Eagles out of first-place contention.

• Wins against Zimbabwe and Rwanda in October would consolidate their advantage.

If South Africa secure at least 3 wins from their last 4 games, they are almost guaranteed to finish as group winners. Even 2 wins and a draw (20 points) should be enough, unless Rwanda or Benin produce a stunning late surge.

Scenario 2: Slipping into 2nd (Runners-Up Route)

If South Africa stumble—say, losing to Nigeria and dropping more points against Lesotho or Rwanda—they could be dragged into a fight for second place.

• With 13 points already, even 2 more wins would take them to 19 points, which should still be good enough for top-four runners-up at the very least.

  
  
  

• But this path is risky. It would mean competing with other groups’ second-placed teams, where 16–18 points may be the minimum to qualify for the playoff round.

What South Africa Must Do

1. Defend fortress status at home: Beating Nigeria in Bloemfontein would be a decisive blow, both mathematically and psychologically.

2. Avoid complacency against “smaller” teams: Matches against Lesotho and Zimbabwe could be potential slip-ups if focus wavers.

3. Maintain balance between attack and control: With +5 goal difference, South Africa must also watch margins. In case of a tie with Nigeria or Rwanda, GD and goals scored could prove decisive.

   
   
   

4. Stay consistent under pressure: The group is still volatile, and one bad window could reopen the door for rivals.

South Africa are in the driver’s seat of Group C. With four games left, they have their destiny in their own hands: win three more, and they’re almost certainly heading to the 2026 World Cup. But with Nigeria lurking and Rwanda and Benin quietly competitive, there is no room for complacency. For Bafana Bafana, the September clash against Nigeria could be the defining moment of their qualification campaign.