2026 World Cup: What Nigeria must do to qualify ahead of South Africa
Super Eagles unveil 31-man provisional squad for Rwanda and South Africa clashes
The Super Eagles of Nigeria find themselves in a precarious position in CAF Group C of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers. After six games, Nigeria sits in fourth place with seven points, trailing group leaders South Africa (13 points), as well as Rwanda and Benin (8 points each). With only four matches remaining, qualification is still possible but will demand flawless execution, tactical discipline, and a little help from other results.
The September window—home against Rwanda and a crunch away trip to South Africa—is set to define Nigeria’s chances. Anything short of six points from those fixtures will push the Super Eagles into relying heavily on the “best runners-up” route. But if they can seize the moment, climb back into contention, and maximize their remaining fixtures, qualification remains firmly within reach.
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Scenario 1: Winning Group C (Direct Qualification)
Nigeria can still reach 19 points if they win all four remaining matches. To overtake South Africa, the Eagles must:
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Beat Rwanda (home) and South Africa (away) in September.
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Win against Lesotho (away) and Benin (home) in October.
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Hope South Africa drops points in at least one of their other fixtures against Lesotho, Zimbabwe, or Rwanda.
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In the event of a 19–19 tie, Nigeria must have a superior goal difference or goals scored.
A victory in Bloemfontein would not just close the gap but also send a psychological shockwave through the group, swinging momentum back Nigeria’s way.
Scenario 2: Finishing 2nd and Targeting the Best Runners-Up Playoff
If topping the group proves elusive, Nigeria must secure second place ahead of Rwanda, Benin, and Lesotho. With matches against Rwanda and Benin still to come, Nigeria controls its own destiny in this mini-battle.
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To be in the running for one of the four best runners-up slots, the Super Eagles should aim for 16–17 points—which means at least three wins from the remaining four.
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Goal difference will again be crucial, as runners-up across groups will be compared.
What Nigeria Must Do
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Treat September like finals football: Rwanda and South Africa are must-win games.
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Win big in winnable matches: Goal difference could decide ties. Dominant victories against Rwanda, Lesotho, and Benin are essential.
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Stay disciplined: Avoid suspensions and unnecessary cards—fair play points can decide tiebreaks.
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Remain mentally resilient: South Africa has been efficient, but one slip-up by Bafana can open the door if Nigeria are ready.
Nigeria’s path to the 2026 World Cup is narrow but still passable. The Super Eagles cannot afford another stumble. Four wins out of four would put them in contention for top spot or, at worst, a strong runners-up finish. Anything less risks leaving their fate at the mercy of other groups.
For a footballing nation that prides itself on global presence, the message is clear: September is now or never for Nigeria’s World Cup dream.
